Cleveland Browns: Analytics is different from moneyball
By Joel W. Cade
With the hiring of Paul DePodesta, the Cleveland Browns have brought an entirely new approach to the NFL. The question now is: Can Moneyball work in the NFL? The answer to this question is simple. Moneyball, the process of exploiting marking inefficiencies to compete in an unfair financial game, will not work in the NFL. It does not even make sense to try.
That’s because the game is not unfair. The NFL has a salary cap that puts all teams on a level playing field. Each team only has a certain amount of money it can spend. The real question, when it comes to the salary cap, is how to spend the money effectively.
Second, the game of football is different from baseball. Baseball has nine players on defense who can be evaluated statistically as individuals. Generally speaking, the way a second baseman plays is relatively independent from all other positions. Statistically, one can evaluate a second baseman in isolation from everyone else.
However, this is not the case in football. Football is different in that all 11 players must work collectively in order to produce results. This is true both offensively, defensively and on special teams. As where baseball is basically a static game, football is a dynamic event.
Moneyball was a specific answer to a specific question: how to win at a financially unfair game. However, the Cleveland Browns are not asking that question. The answers to how to win in baseball categorically do not apply to football. Of course Moneyball will not work in the NFL, it was designed to work in MLB. If Moneyball will not work in the NFL, then what are the Cleveland Browns up to?
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