Normally our resident handicapper would be all over a double-digit underdog in the NFL, but the Week 15 matchups put that theory to the test.
When it comes to gambling, everyone has their own set of rules.
My No. 1 football betting theory is as follows: in the NFL always, always take every double-digit underdog. Every one, each week, regardless or who or when and no matter how ugly that dog might be.
It is a sound theory because giving any pro team two scores is just too much when the final margin of most NFL games is between three and seven points.
Well, to quote famous British scientist Mary Leakey, “Theories come and go, but fundamental data always remain the same.” In that vein, Week 15’s card includes three double-digit dogs that are just fundamentally un-bettable. Fundamentally.
The “we gave a raise and fired our coach in the same week” Los Angeles Rams were a +16 underdog against the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night and lost by 21. The “one more loss and we could be drafting No. 1” San Francisco 49ers are +14 for their road game against the Atlanta Falcons. And, yes, the Cleveland Browns are +10 for tomorrow’s game in Buffalo against the Bills.
Frankly, heading into the weekend I liked the chances of both California teams covering better than the chances of the Brown and Orange in the Battle for Lake Erie.
Instead, we’ll go with a quartet of smaller dogs to keep our head above .500:
- Chicago Bears + 7 vs. the Green Bay Packers – The Bears are frisky and the Packers are due for a big letdown. Upset special.
- Detroit Lions +4 @ the New York Giants – Bum thumb or not, Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford is last-minute magic this year.
- Tennessee Titans +6 @ the Kansas City Chiefs – No one’s noticed, but the crummy Titans may be playoff bound.
- Carolina Panthers +5 @ the Washington Redskins (Monday Night Football) – There is still some fight left in last year’s NFC champs … .we think.
Last week 2-1-1; Season Record 30-29-3