Cleveland Browns: The QB questions continue with the 2017 NFL Draft
By Joel W. Cade
The Gambler model seeks to play the draft market. The draft market is full of inefficiencies. An inefficiency occurs when the market places a greater value upon an item than an efficient market would.
If the draft evaluators place a second-round value on a quarterback, but a team picks him in the first round, then the quarterback draft market is inefficient. The quarterback market in the NFL current operates in these conditions.
The Gambler model seeks to exploit market inefficiency to increase overall value. A team may have a high pick. Another team may have a lower pick but want a quarterback. That quarterback may be valued by draft evaluators to land in the second team’s draft slot. However, due to the quarterback market inefficiency, the quarterback may be taken before his efficient pick slot.
The Gambler would then seek to leverage his higher pick against the other team’s pick and desire for a quarterback in an inefficient market to increase his overall draft capital.
In Browns land, the key proponents of this model are front office executives Paul DePodesta and Sashi Brown. For an example one need look no further than the 2016 NFL Draft. The Browns front office used the quarterback market inefficiency to increase its draft capital in the 2017 and 2018 drafts. Thus, the Browns own more draft capital than the original pick they traded held.
The Browns executed the Gambler to perfection last year.