How the Cleveland Browns can beat the draft quarterback market

In the 2016 NFL Draft, the Tennessee Titans traded the first overall pick, its fourth-round pick (No. 113) and its sixth-round pick (No. 177) to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for the 15th overall pick, two second-round picks (Nos. 43 and 45) and a third-round pick (No. 76) in 2016. In addition, the Titans acquired the Rams first-round pick in 2017 which turned out to be the fifth overall pick.

In terms of Johnson’s pick value chart, the Titans traded 3,088.6 draft points for 3,880 draft points from the Rams. The point difference is 791.4, or roughly the equivalent of the 21st overall pick in the NFL draft.

The Rams decided to part with the equivalent of the 21st overall pick in the draft to move from 15th overall to first overall in the 2016.

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Why would a team overspend that much draft capital to move up in the draft? The answer is obvious: to draft what they believed to be a franchise quarterback.

The need for a franchise quarterback in the NFL cannot be overstated. Every year, virtually the same teams are vying for the Super Bowl. Why? Because they have a quarterback who can lead the offense and inspire confidence in the rest of the team.

In short, they are franchise quarterbacks.

The value a franchise quarterback brings to a team cannot be measured. In fact, given the impact these quarterbacks have on a team, it seems reasonable that any amount of draft capital is a fair trade for a genuine franchise quarterback.

This brings us to the second argument Browns fans make about drafting a quarterback. It runs as follows: If you believe that a player, for example Trubisky, is a franchise quarterback then no price is too high. The value he brings to the team is worth every bit of the price paid to acquire him.

The difficulty of this approach is twofold.

First, the premise of the argument is based on an unjustifiable belief. It is simply impossible to determine if a quarterback is a franchise quarterback before he is drafted. There are key performance and personality indicators that can help, but in the end the draft remains a gamble. Thus, any trade up the draft board is based on an unjustified belief that a player is truly a franchise quarterback.

Second, the power of belief knows no limits. If a team truly believes (without justification) that our example player Trubisky is a franchise quarterback, then that team will overpay the value of the pick necessary to acquire him.

For example, if a team sits at the 10th overall pick and believes Trubisky is a franchise quarterback, then that team, per this argument, should be willing pay any price to move up to the pick necessary to take him. In short, no price is too high for someone a team truly believes (unjustifiably) is a franchise quarterback.

Thus, a market inefficiency at quarterback is created. It only takes one team to “fall in love” with a quarterback to overpay for a pick and inflate the entire market.

In the end, the worth of players and picks are not determined by a pick value chart or a player ranking. Instead, worth is determined by the market and the market is determined by an unjustified belief that a player is truly a franchise quarterback.

The smart teams play this market to their advantage.