Cleveland Browns: The schedule makers are not evil after all

Every year, many Cleveland Browns fans curse the schedule gods for sealing our fate before the season starts. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s not even a lottery. In fact, with a little insight, you can know most of the Browns opponents in 2019 and beyond.

To the casual fan, the NFL schedule can seem like a puzzle designed to do one thing…screw the Cleveland Browns. Every. Single. Year. That’s because, every year, Browns fans shake their collective heads at how a team that is typically among the worst in the league has one of the toughest projected strength of schedules.

We see our list of opponents in January and the questions start:

The Chiefs? Oh, the league just wants John Dorsey to go against his old team.

The Saints? In New Orleans? Really?

The Jets and Chargers, three years in a row? What’s up with that?!

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Take heart, Browns fans. It’s not a conspiracy theory. Nobody is out to keep us down. It’s also not about a group of employees in the NFL office randomly pulling ping-pong balls out of a bingo-blower. It’s actually a quite orderly process that puts a premium on divisional teams playing as many common opponents as possible.

In fact, with a little detective work (no math required, I promise), I can tell you why the 2019 schedule sets Browns fans up to see a Sam Darnold-Baker Mayfield battle (if it doesn’t happen this year) and our first look at Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers.

Here’s how the NFL sets the opponents for the Cleveland Browns (and every other NFL team):

The Cleveland Browns play six divisional games every year. They play every team in their division (the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cincinnati Bengals) twice – once at home and once on the road. What this means for 2019: Despite their anemic record the past two seasons, the Browns play in what is, statistically, one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. This looks to continue in 2018, so their 2019 strength of schedule will probably be once again among the league’s toughest. Be ready for it.
Every team in the AFC North plays one game against every team in the same AFC division. The exact division (East, South or West) is determined on a round-robin system. This ensures the Browns will play every team in the AFC at least once every three years. This year, that division is the AFC West. What this means for 2019: In 2017, the AFC North played the AFC South. That’s why I can say that in 2019, the Browns will play every team in the AFC East. See, no math required. Here’s another neat trick to throw out at your next tailgate party. Do you remember in 2016 when Tom Brady, fresh off a suspension, battled Cody Kessler at First Energy Stadium? That’s a clue that MOST LIKELY the Browns will have to travel to Gillette Stadium. Again, that’s subject to other factors, but why should the citizens of Foxborough be denied the treat that is the Cleveland Browns?
Every team in the AFC North will play one game against every team in the same NFC division. As with the AFC division, the exact NFC division (East, North, South or West) is determined on a round-robin basis. This guarantees the Browns will play every team in the NFC once every four years. This year that division is the NFC South. What this means for 2019: In 2017, the AFC North played the NFC North. In 2016, the AFC North played the NFC East. So in 2019, by process of elimination, the AFC North will play the NFC West. Maybe Josh Rosen will get to duel it out with Baker Mayfield.
That leaves two games. These opponents are the teams in the remaining two AFC divisions that finished in the same place as the Browns. So, this year the Browns play the fourth-place team in the AFC East (New York Jets) and the AFC South (Houston Texans). What this means for 2019: These games are the only two games that cannot be known before the previous season ends. However, we can say that one opponent will be from the AFC South and the other from the AFC West. That’s how the Browns can play a team like the Jets or the Chargers three years in a row.

So there you have it. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s actually pretty fair when you consider that every team in our division has 14 of 16 common opponents. How the schedule is actually arranged from week-to-week is a bit more complicated. It involves things like computers, TV contracts, or where the Dave Matthews band might be playing on a given week (it seriously does, previous stadium commitments play a large role in when and where the schedule makers place a game).

Next: What Browns position group is the best heading into the 2018 season?

You can read more about how the NFL puts together their schedule in this article.

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