Cleveland Browns: Prophesied playoff run unlikely due to road schedule

Christian Kirksey has now-famously claimed that the Cleveland Browns will be in the Super Bowl hunt this coming season. But are the thoughts of a playoff run even feasible with Cleveland’s road schedule in 2018?

The Cleveland Browns have not been a good road team over the past few years. The argument can be made that they haven’t been a good team at all over the past few years, but they’ve been especially abysmal on the road.

Since 2015, the Browns are 1-23 on the road. That one win came in overtime against division rival Baltimore Ravens. Though the teams looks to have vastly improved since then, their road schedule is among the toughest in the NFL this year.

Naturally, the Browns will get eight home games and eight road games this year. Let’s do an experiment, and let’s suppose that the Browns win six of their eight home games. It may be a bit high, but I’m willing to give Cleveland the benefit of the doubt with all the excitement this season.

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If the Browns win six of their home games, then by all statistical measures, they must win four or more of their road games to make the playoffs. The Browns have been 10-6 before and managed not to make the playoffs, but historically, over 80 percent of 10-6 teams make the postseason.

Taking a look at the Browns road schedule, we need to find at least four wins.

The Browns will play the Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Saints, Raiders, Buccaneers, Texans, and Broncos on the road. None of these games will be easy; road games never are. But if the Browns are going to win four games, they will come against the Buccaneers, Bengals, Broncos, and Saints.

Why? Here’s why. With the Saints up first, let’s get the “crazy prediction” out of the way. In years past, the Browns have shown their ability to both be in, and win, games they have no business winning. The Saints are crazy good, but sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

The Saints open against the Buccaneers, and if Tampa Bay can wear down New Orleans enough in week one, it could give the Browns a better shot. This is the least likely of the four wins for the Browns to get, but again, it’s better to be lucky than good. Speaking of the Buccaneers, the Browns head to their house in week seven.

The Buccaneers have shown minimal improvement throughout their rebuild, and this could be the make or break year. If the Bucs can’t make the leap in 2018, the Browns should have a good chance to beat them in week seven.

The Browns’ offensive line will need to hold up against the duo of Gerald McCoy and Vita Vea. This could be a game where we see plenty of Tyrod Taylor’s mobility, along with more quick passes, nickling and diming the Buccaneers down the field.

On November 25th, 2018, the Browns travel to the jungle to face the Cincinnati Bengals. This could be the most likely win that Cleveland gets on the road this year, and would make for their first divisional win in 2015.

The Bengals took Ohio State center Billy Price early in the draft, and acquired Cordy Glenn from the Bills, but their offensive line is still hurting a bit. If Emmanuel Ogbah and Myles Garrett are both healthy this late into the year, this could be their premier game to feast on an opposing quarterback.

Finally, the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are one of the most intriguing teams in the league going into 2018. With new quarterback Case Keenum, no one truly knows what the Broncos will be stylistically this season, much less how they will perform.

Despite boasting one of the best defenses in football, Denver struggled with rough quarterback play last season. Should Case Keenum keep up his inexplicable winning ways in 2018, this one could be tough.

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The moral of the story here is that the Browns have an upsettingly slim chance to win four or even more road games. The team is almost certainly going to be better in 2018, but it might not be enough. Christian Kirksey, your optimism is heartwarming, but as we are so wont to do in Cleveland, we might have to wait until next year.