Tankology 101: How Sashi Brown rebuilt the Cleveland Browns, and nearly destroyed them
Modifying Brown’s methods
Sashi Brown was a bit like the deranged doctor who likes to brag about his successful medical treatment while omitting the fact that the patient died.
Yet, Brown had a role model a few years earlier on how to build for the future and yet not abandon the present. In 2012, his former boss, Joe Banner realized that Trent Richardson was not going to live up to his draft status and prevailed upon the Browns to trade Richardson for a first-round draft pick from the Indianapolis Colts.
Thus, Banner also transferred resources from the present to the future, but in addition, the Browns replaced Richardson for one year by signing veteran Willis McGahee. Banner was still criticized for the deal, but in that instance, they did not abandon the idea of having a credible team. Perhaps this should have suggested a better approach for Brown. Go on a diet, yes. But do not completely cut off food and water, okay?
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Analytics is not an excuse for a ruthless single-minded approach. In optimization theory, you do not have to limit yourself to a single goal, such as, i.e., to win the Super Bowl at all costs. You can mathematically frame multiple goals such that, say, 90 percent of your goal is to win the Super Bowl in four years, but you also want to spend some of your resources to win now. You also have to realize that deliberately understaffing the offensive line is going to get your quarterback killed, as evidenced by the 2016 team that resulted in a broken collarbone (RG3), broken shoulder blade (McCown), injured ankle (Whitehurst), concussion (Kessler, twice).
The GM and the owner need to set the team goals carefully. The salary cap is probably the largest single issue. If you cut the expenditures on players on the field as severely as the Browns did there will be huge repercussions. The analytics model has to estimate the effect of these moves on the cost of future free agents. If you systematically terminate contracts early (say, Dansby, Tramon Williams, Kruger, McCown, RG3, etc), future free agents are going to become harder to sign and the asking price will inevitably increase.
That has to be managed more carefully. If the “loser’s tax” effect were to have been more accurately and quantitatively modeled, likely the Browns would not have made many of these moves and they could have avoided winless seasons while still creating salary cap carryover.
Analytics or not, the proposed salary cap moves have to make at least some football sense. If you do decide to make a difficult cut in order to reduce the salary structure of the team, there needs to be some compensating move. Some portion of the money saved from these salary cap moves should be directed to sign players for the short term to hold things together.
The Browns are lucky to have recovered from 1-31. If some other team tanks to that degree in the future, there is a very good chance that they will be playing in London or Mexico City.