Sabermetric value analysis of Cleveland Browns defensive players
The Table below lists the salary “cap hit,” or dollars that are charged to the Browns 2019 salary cap, subject to change if a trade is made and bonus money rules come into play. The Pro Football Focus grade, specifically the rank of the player among others at the same position, is used to generate a monetary value based on the known salary and the ranks compared to the salary.
The intention is to create a for the profit or loss for the investment in the player, similar to a “Balance Sheet” used for Wall Street companies. The Haslam’s need to know whether they are getting what they paid for or not.
The “Estimated Rank Value” is how much the player’s performance is worth based on his grade. In the real world, you would of course modify that depending on the player’s age, team fit and other non-analytic factors.
The “Differential Value” is the difference between how the player is producing versus what the expectation was. So for example, Sheldon Richardson is the seventh-highest paid interior lineman in the NFL, but only has the 53rd highest grade, meaning the level of a borderline starter.
“Value Percentage” is analogous to appreciation or depreciation of a valued asset. In other words, if the player is performing better than expected, they should have a Value Percentage greater than 1.0. Worse than expected means the Value Percentage should be less than 1.0
Browns Defensive Players Value
In general, young players have a chance to come out of nowhere to overperform their contracts. Consequently, it is expected that the veterans will on average see their value diminish. Moreover, the players have two separate pay scales based on their rookie contract and then follow-up contracts. So veterans tend to have Value Percentage less than 1.0 and rookies tend to be greater than 1.0 and sometimes spectacularly so. On the average, however, it should balance out.
Overall, the Haslam’s are getting about 75 percent of what they paid for the key defensive players, which is not very good. And incidentally has next to nothing to do with Freddie Kitchens’ play-calling or Baker Mayfield’s passing. This is how the players have performed according to PFF.
The asterisk (*) signifies that the data sample is small. For example, Greedy Williams and Juston Burris have looked great so far, but their grades may or may not hold up with additional playing time. In particular, Burris had a great game while subbing in during Week 3, but since has not gotten many game reps.
Also, Eric Murray is listed as a safety by Pro Football Focus and a cornerback by overthecap.com. Because cornerbacks are paid more than safeties, he looks like a better value as a cornerback. In reality, he is a free safety who often plays in a zone.