How Andrew Berry can create additional Cleveland Browns draft picks

2. Use present picks to invest in future picks

A second method to generate extra draft picks is to trade a draft pick for better picks in the next draft, literally investing in the future.  For example, in a separate trade with Houston, the Browns gave up the 12th overall pick in 2017 and received the 25th overall pick (Jabrill Peppers), plus what became the 4th overall pick in 2018 (Denzel Ward).

At the time the trade was made, however, the final valuation of the Houston pick was not known, and so the pick at the time would have been valued as an average first-round pick (1,000 points on the Gil Brandt scale; see below).

To calculate the exchange, the 12th pick scores 1,200 points, and the 25th pick is valued at 720 points. The Browns came up short by 480 points in 2017 but were rewarded with 4th overall in 2018 (1,800 points). That’s equivalent to 275 percent interest.

That is hard to ignore.

One could argue that DeShaun Watson was a special case. But not every 12th overall pick is as good as DeShaun Watson, so it has to be judged based on what was known at the time.

For many Cleveland fans, the failure of the Sashi Brown regime leaves a bitter aftertaste for analytics. That’s understandable, but putting aside the Browns for a moment. Analytics is used by all the modern NFL teams and in particular, was advanced by forward thinkers in the Dallas Cowboys organization during their heyday.

That group could have won 10 Super Bowls were it not for ownership meddling in the operation. But Jerry Jones’ mistakes do not mitigate the brilliance of what they were doing in scouting, talent evaluation, and drafting.

Everyone knows that the early picks are better than the later ones.  But how much better? To answer those questions, Tex Schramm, Gil Brandt and Jimmy Johnson of the Dallas Cowboys created a point system to estimate the relative value of draft picks. This is based on valuation theory, not rocket science.

All NFL teams now use some variation of the Brandt system, but of course, they do not tell what they think the real numbers should be. The Brandt system provides a reference point, at least.