Cleveland Browns new players graded much higher than departing veterans
No question, the Cleveland Browns have added a lot of talent. Numbers provided by Pro Football Focus say that they have upgraded seven starting positions.
The newly signed Cleveland Browns free agents are rated much higher than the talent that is leaving the team. If you believe in the grading system by Pro Football Focus (subscription required), there is a quantum difference.
Consider that the Browns are adding six players that grade in the upper half of NFL starters and two others that grade as below average starters. By contrast, the Browns are giving up seven players that are considered starters, but only Joe Schobert and Juston Burris ranked as average players at their positions, and all of the others graded below average. The Browns upgraded everywhere except linebacker.
As of March 23, the Browns have acquired eight free agents who received grades from Pro Football Focus. The grades allow the players to be ranked in order from best to worst. For the purposes of discussion, the players.
In order to convert it to a percentile, the number of players is limited to nominal starters. Not every team consistently fields the same lineup as their featured formation, but the percentiles are based on 22 starters per team.
For example, since there are 64 starting offensive tackles in the NFL, and Jack Conklin is ranked 10th by PFF, so to convert to percentile, 64 minus ten, divided by 64 times 100, yields 84th percentile.
Note that after the first string, the sequence is started over again for the second string. So please don’t get too excited about second-stringer Case Keenum, who is 95th percentile as a backup, but not to be confused with a first-string quarterback like Aaron Rodgers.
On a positional basis, Conklin replaces Greg Robinson, who was the 36th percentile. This is a very significant upgrade.
Similarly, tight end Austin Hooper is 80th percentile and replaces Demetrius Harris, who did not even grade out as a first-string player.
Though there are not very many fullbacks in the league (estimating eight as actual first-string starters), Andy Janovich is one of the best, ranking in the 70th percentile. He will take the roster spot of one of the Browns’ backup tight ends, another significant upgrade.
On defense, three defensive backs are graded as above average — cornerback Kevin Johnson (69th percentile) and safeties Andrew Sendejo (60th) and Karl Joseph (51st). They replace a group of five defensive backs, three of whom were close to average — cornerback Juston Burris (49th), safeties Damarious Randall (43rd), Morgan Burnett (42nd), and Eric Murray (11th). Travis Carrie was perceived as a respectable second string (2/74).
It’s almost impossible to have a team full of above-average starters because of the salary cap. If you want to pay stars, you have to pay much lower salaries somewhere else. Nevertheless, those blue-collar players are very important.
Thus consider that a player like defensive tackle Andrew Billings (39th percentile) can be a huge upgrade. PFF did not like incumbent Larry Ogunjobi at all. He was close to third string. Hence if you believe PFF, that is a significant upgrade.
At linebacker, the Browns lose Joe Schobert (50th percentile, which is average), as well as Christian Kirksey, rated 24th percentile). This is the only area in which the departing players grade higher than the arriving players, but it is not by as large a margin as you might guess. The guy they are getting, former Giant and Packer B. J. Goodson, is rated 44th percentile. But Schobert’s contract is $53.8 million over five years, and Kirksey’s is two years, $13 million.
At press time, details of Goodson’s contract have not been released, but it is believed that he is signing for a much lower rate and only one year. Although Goodson has never been an every-down linebacker even though PFF grades about the same in all three areas: run defense, pass defense and pass-rushing, this is a better value by far than the more expensive ex-Browns.
The buzz is that the analytics guys including Andrew Berry believe that linebackers are overpaid in general and thus, the theory goes, you are better off investing in the defensive lineman and cornerbacks.
Case Keenum is not an upgrade over Baker Mayfield, but he is a huge upgrade over Alliance of American Football star Garrett Gilbert. Backup quarterback is a real position. You never know if your team will lose its starter for a time, as the Pittsburgh Steelers did last year with Ben Roethlisberger.
So, despite years of disappointment, this fan is drinking the Kool-Aid this year. The Browns have made, on paper at least, significant upgrades at seven starting positions, as well as backup quarterback, and they appear to have plugged a hole at linebacker. They will still be looking for talent on defense, and they could use another offensive tackle as well.
The table summarizes who the Browns have signed, and who they will probably lose, along with their position and percentile ranking (remember, high is good), followed on page 2 by a more detailed explanation of percentile calculations.
Page 3 discusses the PFF grading system and some of the pros and cons of using PFF numbers to judge a team.
BROWNS GET:
Player Position String/ Percentile
Jack Conklin RT 1/84
Austin Hooper TE 1/80
Andy Janovich FB 1/70
Kevin Johnson CB 1/69
Andrew Sendejo S 1/60
Karl Joseph S 1/51
B.J. Goodson LB 1/44
Andrew Billings DT 1/39
Case Keenum QB 2/95
BROWNS GIVE UP:
Player Position String/ Percentile
Greg Robinson LT 1/36
Joe Schobert LB 1/50
Christian Kirksey LB 1/24
Juston Burris CB 1/49
Damarious Randall S 1/43
Morgan Burnett S 1/42
Eric Murray S 1/11
Adarius Taylor LB 2/57
Demetrius Harris TE 2/35
Rashard Higgins WR 2/58
Travis Carrie CB 2/74
Drew Stanton QB 2/??