Cleveland Browns Baker Mayfield may surge in the second half again
Numbers show Baker has improved later in the season in 2018 and 2019
The numbers say Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns improved as the season progressed in both 2018 and 2019, and there may be a reason for that trend. Mayfield is on his fourth head coach and fourth offensive coordinator in his brief career. Each time the reset button has been pushed, there is a learning process, and it takes a while for the quarterback and the team to learn how to play well together. The “learning curve” is real, not just for the quarterback but the entire team, so it should be expected that the team will perform better as the season progresses, especially for a rookie head coach.
The situation is not helped by the fact that the fan base and even the national media have had unrealistic expectations for immediate Super Bowl-caliber performances in 2019 and 2020. The reality is that the reset button has always been pushed before the learning curve has reached its logical conclusion. We don’t know how good they might have been under head coaches Hue Jackson, Gregg Williams, Freddie Kitchens, or Kevin Stefanski. No coach ever was fired while down-trending, i.e., a worse season than the previous one under the same coach. As ridiculous as it sounds, the team showed improvement under all four head coaches, and the plug was pulled before Mayfield and the team could reach their full potential or at least level performance.
Before getting too deep into the numbers, however, let’s review the usual caveats. Stats assist but don’t replace the human brain or a scout’s eyeballs. Likewise, the stats have to be interpreted. Are the numbers the result of the quarterback’s ability, the coaching, the game plan, or the other players on the team? No one can look at a piece of paper and judge a player’s career, at least not this fan, but what we can do is use the stats as a starting point for a discussion.
Paul DePodesta has said all along that there is a penalty for changing coaches. That’s true. Teams are usually set back when they have to learn a new system. It’s a disadvantage, not an advantage when a change is made. So if the team fires the head coach, there had better be a clear reason for doing so, because it will take a while to recover. It’s a bit like knee surgery for a player. Yes, it will help in the long run, but do not expect immediate improvement. The numbers support DePodesta’s belief.
In 2018 and 2019, the team got off to a poor start with a new coach and improved as the season went on. The same is true of their quarterback. Mayfield definitely showed improvement as the season progressed.
To see this, we can start by going back and recalling what the world was like before Mayfield, and then how his rookie year progressed in 2018 in the closing days of the Hue Jackson era.