Cleveland Browns Baker Mayfield may surge in the second half again

Ball-control, run-first offense for 2020

While the 2019 Browns attempted to take on the personality of coach Kitchens, with a rowdy, big-play oriented offensive philosophy, Kevin Stefanski has been much more methodical and down to earth. With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to carry the ball and a deep supply of tight ends and fullbacks to act as extra blockers, the Browns started to pound opponents into submission despite an initial loss to the Ravens’ equally deadly running attack.

Coming into the season, like it or not, the Browns record says they were a 6-10 team last year. The team and its quarterback got worse last season, not better. They were an undisciplined, sloppy team on offense. They were susceptible to turnovers (21 INTs, tied for second in the NFL). They were fascinated with trick plays and deep balls to wide receivers. They were timid about running the ball despite having arguably the top runner in Nick Chubb (22nd in team rush attempts, which is the most pathetic of all stats last season), and Kareem Hunt for eight games.

Cleveland entered 2020 with a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator and no exhibition games and a limited summer camp in the middle of a Covid pandemic. They made important additions at tackle by signing free agent Jack Conklin and drafting Jedrick Wills; also added Austin Hooper and drafted Harrison Bryant at tight end. That was who they were coming into this season.

There’s always the possibility of improvement, but there was no realistic basis for believing that the Browns should have been a Super Bowl contender immediately. For that reason, this prognosticator did not pick the Browns to beat the Ravens in Week 1, despite adding some quality players and having a very good draft.

It would be expected that any quarterback with a new coach and a new offense (not just Mayfield) should struggle at first, and improve in the second half of the season. Probably Daniel Jones in New York and Joe Burrow in Cincinnati will have better second halves of the season as well, just as a guess.

Initially, Mayfield was given very simple passing reads and progressions, and for the most part, the Browns kept the ball on the ground. Cleveland used extra wide receivers mainly as blockers or decoys rather than legitimate receiving targets. After the Dallas game, however, the Browns started to open things up in the passing game. One reason is that Mayfield and his teammates are becoming more familiar and experienced in the system.  The other issue is that his running backs are not healthy.

Nick Chubb has been out with a knee problem since the Dallas game, and Kareem Hunt has had to have a few dents and dings in his frame straightened out while not missing any time. D’Ernest Johnson and Dontrell Hilliard have contributed in Chubb’s absence, but to be clear, there is only one Nick Chubb. Getting him back would make everyone much more dangerous. If they can get Hunt and Chubb healthy, not to mention pancake specialist Wyatt Teller back on his feet, the Browns can give their backs 40 touches a game and physically beat up defenses in the fourth quarter. This may look a lot like Bernie Kosar, Kevin Mack, and Earnest Byner 2.0.

Mayfield’s numbers are significantly better at the halfway point than in either of the previous two campaigns. They aren’t spectacular numbers, which has caused his many critics to lose their minds and call for his dismissal. This is simply irrational since the Browns have to at least wait until the free-agent signing period or NFL draft (March 2021, for you sharks out there) before contemplating a stupid move of this magnitude.

For the balance of the season, there is no move to be made, and Mayfield’s numbers are plenty good enough to run Stefanski’s offense and take the team to a winning record.

Numbers don’t tell the entire story. But Lord willing and the creek don’t rise, the Browns may have a record comparable to the first half, and they can be a contender. This fan looks for Mayfield and the entire offense to step it up a notch and perform better on offense in the second half of the season.

The success of the quarterback is not necessarily judged by how often he throws the ball. If handing the ball off to Chubb and Hunt is the better play, so be it. Just score. If there are fewer touchdown passes and fewer passing yards that doesn’t mean the quarterback is doing a bad job. For example, ask Troy Aikman about having Emmitt Smith on the team and getting criticized by the stat-mongers for not having as many touchdown passes as Craig Erickson and Steve Beuerlein.

That doesn’t mean that the Cowboys should have cut Troy Aikman, okay? Plus, we are going to have to get over the idea that there is something wrong with doing a great job managing the game, as that has somehow that has become an insult (so, never have Joe Montana or Tom Brady on your team, because they were among the greatest game managers in history). You have to be smart about what the stats actually mean. Either that or have your own network sports talk show and make a living insulting NFL players.

Admitting that Mayfield will never make his critics happy,  we may as well concede he will be blamed for global warming, the escalating national debt, and the extinction of the dinosaurs. A more thoughtful critic might look for offensive productivity in the second half of the season, and stats such as completion percentage should increase, yards between interceptions should increase, interceptions per game should decrease, passer rating should increase, and we hope to see better team performance against Pittsburgh and Baltimore the second time around.

We should absolutely not care whether the touchdowns come through the air or on the ground, as long as Chubb and Hunt are producing.  In this fan’s opinion, the 2020 squad is the most exciting team the Browns have fielded since 1994.

YEAR  W    L    Com/g Att/g  Cmp%  Yds/g  Td/g  Int/G  RATE   Yd/INT TD/Int  S/g

2020   5    3      17.1   27.9    61.4%   189    1.88   0.88    90.9      216     2.14     1.38