Vegas in conniptions over Texans at Cleveland Browns

Bad weather contributes to Browns over/under plummeting versus Texans

The Las Vegas line has moved all over the place this week in anticipation of Sunday’s visit of the Houston Texans at the Cleveland Browns. This fan is not a gambler but is highly respectful of the football smarts in Las Vegas. Look at the multimillion-dollar hotels in the Las Vegas skyline, and be assured that sports gamblers are not often outsmarted.

Fox Sports Straight Outta Vegas‘ R.J. Bell and Steve Fezzik explain that the game opened with Vegas envisioning a wide-open offensive affair with a 55.5 over/under (point total). The Browns were a -2.5 point favorite to win. However, as of Friday evening, the spread reached -4 points, and the over-under shrank to 45.5, a ten-point differential.

That’s an enormous change, roughly comparable to removing two superstars from the offenses.  In between, there was a fear that Baker Mayfield might have to sit out due to Covid-19 quarantine requirements, and the weather report for Sunday in Cleveland was shaping up to be nasty. Weather.com predicts an 80 percent chance of rain, with 31 mile an hour winds from the Southwest. Of course, by the lake, it tends to be a bit more breezy.

Cleveland fans will recall that the last game the Browns played versus the Raiders was also played in a minor hurricane, and it definitely affected the ability to kick field goals and kickoffs, punts, and passes, and it held the score down (16-6, Raiders).

That kind of weather generally favors the running game.  Speaking of which, the Texans, unfortunately, are without their best running back, David Johnson. In his place will be former Brown Duke Johnson, who so far has 95 yards rushing on the season, and 2.5 yards per carry. In Cleveland, he was always complaining about his lack of playing time, but Sunday he will get his chance.

It doesn’t make sense to believe that the Texans game plan will contain a run-heavy offense featuring Duke Johnson. No, the Texans, a dome team, are going to have to depend on DeShaun Watson throwing the ball 50 times on Sunday into a 31 mile an hour wind to stay even with the Browns.  It is not impossible for a star like Watson, but it is not easy, either.

Meanwhile, this is Browns football weather. The Texans’ NFL-worst rushing defense is going to compete against a healthy Nick Chubb, with two weeks of needed healing time for banged-up Kareem Hunt, and healthy reserves in D’Ernest Johnson and Dontrell Hillard. That translates to an advantage for Cleveland, but only an additional 1.5 points, at least according to Vegas.

This fan does not bet, but it would be fair to say that he doesn’t understand why the bad weather is estimated to be about the same disadvantage for the run-oriented cold-weather AFC North team, as opposed to the team that was built to be a wide-open passing team in a dome in Texas.

Throwing stats are likely to be bad on Sunday, just as they were in the Raiders game. If Mayfield and Watson put up poor numbers, they will be criticized by less savvy members of the media, particularly those who do not watch the game. Conversely, those quarterbacks who put up bigger numbers while chucking the pigskin in a dome will earn praise as well as fantasy points. We have to be smart enough to understand what these stats actually mean. It’s not just about whose numbers are higher.

The weather is probably the reason for the huge drop in the over/under this week, although Vegas figures that it affects the Texans only slightly more than the Browns, about one point worth to be precise. That seems odd, since the Texans will have to live and die by the pass, but the Browns seem much better equipped to run the ball. Would not most coaches favor a team with a strong running game on a muddy field with strong winds present?

Well, football is full of surprises. Maybe Duke Johnson is ready for a breakout game and be the dominant runner on Sunday….nah. This is crazy. Deshaun Watson is so good that the Texans cannot be counted out. He may be able to find holes in the secondary and move the ball on offense, but the Browns are going to run all day long. It’s going to be 1963 all over again.