Why it makes excellent sense for Cleveland Browns, OBJ to renegotiate his contract

What is fair value for OBJ?

The big question is, how much is fair value? This year is going to be harder than ever to decide that question.  Sandhu and his client are no doubt posturing for a superstar salary. At this time, they will be asking for a pay raise and for significant guarantees.

There are different ways to look at contracts, of course.

Currently, in terms of salary per year averaged over his contract, he is eighth in the NFL. Making 1,000 receiving yards while playing 16 games with a serious injury and Freddie Kitchens as his coach and Todd Monken as his OC is a good argument that indeed he was about that level.

He didn’t have time to prove that he could adjust to the Stefanski offense in 2020. He didn’t have time to show that he was going to improve his game to become a better fit for the offense. The ACL, while covered under the factory warranty, is just a little worrisome. That might cause a prudent general manager to set OBJ’s value down a little, but not much. Maybe he might deserve to be about the 15th highest-paid receiver in the NFL in 2021. That’s about where his current contract places him based on 2020 rates.

However, this fan suggests that NFL supply and demand are out of whack this year and salaries are going to come way down this year when free agents hit the street. Teams like the Saints and Eagles are going to cut star players outright just to make their salary cap targets, and salaries are going to be shockingly low, similar to the experience of Jadeveon Clowney who signed for millions less than they were asking, once the impact of Covid-19 on NFL revenues was understood (Clowney was asking for $20 million/year for four years and signed for $13 million for one year).

Still, if Sandhu reads this article, he will absolutely not believe the stuff about the salary market collapsing. He’ll probably say something like, “Internet nonsense! What is Dawg Pound Daily publishing next? Utter bull feathers! We are never, never, never going to agree to a pay cut!”

There will be plenty of nasty letters written agreeing that this can never happen. But let’s wait until April and see. This writer’s crystal ball shows that if the NFL follows through with its intention to contract the salary cap this season, there are way too many teams that overspent in 2020 and need to cut payroll in 2021. At the same time, there are too many free agents hitting the market already. Suddenly everyone, including OBJ, may not be worth as much as they were a few years ago.

So if both the team and OBJ elect to renegotiate a more secure three-year deal, the total value may be smaller than anticipated as of January 2021. The contract should be one that befits a quality wide receiver. The total dollar value will become more clear in the spring when the NFL budgetary process is better understood, although this analyst is warning that a financial contraction is in order league-wide.

The Browns will cut several million dollars from the 2021 salary cap. OBJ will get a bigger check in 2021 and have some better security for 2022 and 2023.  The restructured deal can make sense for both sides.

It is even better for the Browns if the general salaries for NFL players decrease this season due to the revenue contraction, as expected, assuming OBJ and his agent are willing to accept the reality of the financial situation.