Cleveland Browns free-agency signings impact Super Bowl odds
The sportswriters like the Browns offseason, and the oddsmakers agree.
It’s one thing if sportswriters at Dawg Pound Daily are excited about Cleveland Browns signings, but quite another if the betting lines are moving in response to moves that the Browns are making.
According to the Action Network, which lists futures from nine different betting sites, the Cleveland Browns odds have changed in a positive direction, though not as much as you might imagine during the free agency period. The indications are that smart money believes the Browns have gotten a little better, and are narrowing the gap slightly between them and the Baltimore Ravens.
However, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who looked so invincible at the midpoint of last season, are now regarded as more of a longshot. The fourth team in the AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals, would seem to have a death lock on last place and can look forward to another great draft pick in 2022.
As always, DPD is not vouching for the accuracy of the odds, which can change at any time, and is not offering betting advice (trust us, you would not want our advice, based on the historical record).
Right after the Super Bowl, the Browns had been installed as +2500 underdogs to win it all this season. That is, a bet of $100 would win $2500.
As of April 5, however, the odds are coming down according to Action Network, listing odds ranging from +2200 to as low as +1800. Their best-listed offer for the Baltimore Ravens is +1400.
Rounding out the AFC North, Pittsburgh is currently available at +5000, although other sites are a bit tamer at +3500. As for the Bengals, well, you can get +15000, indicating that bookies have tremendous confidence that Mike Brown will find a way to mess things up again.
In February, a week after the Super Bowl, the Browns were at +2500, with the Ravens at +1200. Since that time, however, it became clear that the Ravens would not retain key players like Matthew Judon, Yannick Ngakoue, Mark Ingram, and Matt Skura. It appears that they are pursuing a long-term strategy that will allow them to maximize their quota of compensatory free agents.
Nevertheless for those readers who continue to seek reasons to be pessimistic about the 12-6 Browns team, please know it is not simply sportswriters hyping the team. There is tangible evidence that the greatest experts in the country agree with us, at least to a certain extent.
The Browns are still longshots to win it all, however. The gamblers are still madly in love with Patrick Mahomes and his bazooka arm, but even they are +500, or in other words, implied odds of one in six chances of winning the Super Bowl. Every team in the NFL is an underdog, and there are no straight-up favorites to win it all.
Cleveland has made major additions that have plugged holes with safety John Johnson III, veteran cornerback in Troy Hill; a pass-rushing end in Takk McKinley, a linebacker in Anthony Walker, Jr., and veteran defensive tackle in Malik Jackson, and suddenly the Browns look very formidable on defense. Why doesn’t this make a much larger impact on the Super Bowl chances?
After all, if you believe Pro Football Focus, Johnson is an elite, top-five safety, Hill is comparable to Denzel Ward in term of his performance last season. McKinley is an above-average pass rusher if he is healthy, and he has an excellent chance for a complete recovery from what seems to be a severe muscle strain. Walker is an upgrade over Mack Wilson, and Jackson is an upgrade over Larry Ogunjobi.
The reason that the oddsmakers seem to be rather calm about it is that they already expected some great signings. The Browns did basically what they were expected to do, and so that was already priced into the odds.
Similarly, the Super Bowl odds are not going to change much after the NFL draft, because the books already know roughly what to expect. It won’t come as a shock when the Browns draft some good players.
The defensive upgrades, while expected by the oddsmakers, are nevertheless very significant, particularly in the defensive secondary, where the Browns were in trouble all season long because they lost two regulars in the preseason. Rookie Grant Delpit went down with a ruptured Achilles tendon, and Greedy Williams had nerve damage in his shoulder.
Next. Filling the remaining holes in 7-round mock. dark
Both injuries are considered career-threatening, though they are attempting comebacks this season.