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Cleveland Browns can balance ‘win now’ and ‘draft for the future’

By Elliot Kennel

CLEVELAND, OHIO - JANUARY 14: Paul DePodesta Cleveland Browns Chief Strategy Officer addresses the media after the Browns introduced Kevin Stefanski as the Browns new head coach on January 14, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OHIO - JANUARY 14: Paul DePodesta Cleveland Browns Chief Strategy Officer addresses the media after the Browns introduced Kevin Stefanski as the Browns new head coach on January 14, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /
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SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 11: The Miami Dolphins defense lines up against the San Francisco 49ers offense during the second half of their NFL football game at Levi’s Stadium on October 11, 2020 in Santa Clara, California. Miami won the game 43-17. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

NFL going rate for 2022 picks according to Miami and SF

The Dolphins first trade was a little more complicated, which is why it is being presented after the later trade with the Philadelphia Eagles. Miami first sent shock waves across the NFL landscape by trading the No. 3 pick to the 49ers in exchange for the No. 12 pick this year, a first- and third-round pick in 2022 and a first-round pick in 2023.

That first trade looked like this:

49ers Get:

2021  Round 1    3rd overall             worth  2,200 points

Miami Gets:

2021  Round 1 12th overall            worth 1,200 points

2022  Round 1   tbd overall              worth 1,000 x (100% – discount)  = ?

2022  Round 3   tbd overall              worth  190 x  (100% – discount)  = ?

2023  Round 1   tbd overall              worth  1,000 x (100% – discount)^2 =?

Once again, solving for the discount, Miami obtained its hoard of picks at a 43 percent discount, just going by the value tables.

Yet when trading up, they traded the future pick as if it were losing 60 percent of its value per year. In other words, they gave Philadelphia a better deal than they got from San Francisco. Or, another way to interpret it is that they believe that Miami will have winning records so their draft picks will not be worth as much as other teams.  San Francisco may also have a rosy future but not quite as certain as Miami.

Otherwise, it would be fair to say that Miami seems to be buying high and selling low.

The team that is trying to get a quarterback seems to be willing to pay a huge premium down the road in this business.

Let’s file these factoids away to see how the Browns might benefit.  Briefly, NFL teams do strange things in pursuit of quarterbacks. There’s no guarantee the Browns will find the right trading partner, but it is possible.

It has happened before, and in fact, the Browns have acted as the dupe more than once.

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