Cleveland Browns made brilliant investment in trade with Lions

The Cleveland Browns stash a few percent of their draft capital for next season. That’s standard practice for a well-run organization. 

The Cleveland Browns made a trade with the Lions, acquiring the Lions’ 2022 fourth round pick along with this year’s fifth rounder (153rd overall). The Browns gave up a 2021 fourth round pick (113th overall) and a seventh rounder (257th overall).

Andrew Berry might be justified in assuming that the perpetually poor Detroit time will find a way to lose more than its share of games in 2021, meaning that the 2022 draft pick will be at least as good as the current 113th overall pick.

Moreover, several observers including this one believe that this year’s picks are muddled in the late rounds because of the Covid-19 impact on the scouting database. Too many games were cancelled or impacted in some way by this scourge, so there is much greater uncertainty about the database in the late rounds. Next year’s picks are probably a bit more valuable than this year’s.

If a football roster were managed like a business (and perhaps it should be), it would be sound practice to normally invest 3% to 10% of the draft capital in the future, especially when such a great return is being offered from one year to the next.

NFL front offices often rationalize that they are willing to bet everything on winning this year, and thus they are willing to trade away future draft picks in order to have a great draft this season. However, next season will eventually roll around, and teams will regret having made self-inflicted wounds.

In any case, by stashing away an extra fourth round pick next season, the Browns are saving an extra 5% of their draft capital for next season. It will come in handy.

Readers of this space have also been presented with the theory that this season’s seventh round picks are probably not worth keeping. The reason is that an empty roster spot can be filled with an undrafted free agent (UDFA), and if that player does not work out, he can be replaced every few weeks until the team finds one who clicks.

The team gets more chances to get it right with UDFAs and for that reason they usually outperform Round 7 draft picks.

Hence dumping a seventh-round pick on Detroit was the best percentage move, given that the Browns have a crowded roster and cannot afford to give up roster spots for low-percentage draft picks.