Cleveland Browns: Baker Mayfield 2021 projection

The sky is the limit for Baker Mayfield, Browns offense

The expectation should be more of the same from Baker and company. Mayfield is finally playing in the same system for the first time in his career. Not only is he in the same system, but as of now, every starter from 2020 is back for 2021.

So it’s not hard to expect Mayfield to have an even bigger 2021 unless you are the ESPN fantasy projection machine.

Per ESPN, Baker’s 2021 stat line has him throwing for 3689 yards with 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. These projections seem low after what we saw take place in the second half of 2020. Last season, he threw for 3500 yards and 26 touchdowns, and he didn’t take off in the offense until week seven. He also did not throw a touchdown for three weeks when fighting the insane winds and rain. If you take what Baker did after week seven on average, it will come out to a much better season.

"ESPN 2021 OUTLOOK: “Mayfield and the Browns took a big step forward in 2020, but the team’s success did not lead to much fantasy production for Mayfield. Leading Kevin Stefanski’s run-heavy scheme, Mayfield ranked 17th in pass attempts, 18th in passing yards and 14th in total TDs (27) while finishing outside the top 15 in fantasy points for the third consecutive season. Mayfield finished a week better than 10th only three times in 16 tries. The 26-year-old will benefit from the return of Odell Beckham Jr., but adds very little with his legs and will continue to hand off the ball often, especially after the team made major defensive upgrades. He’s a back-end QB2.”"

As stated earlier, Mayfield averaged 266 yards per game over the last 11 games. Matching that average over a 17 game season would total 4,522 yards passing. If he averaged the 1.8 touchdowns per game, that would come out to 30. His .27 interception rate would equal, we’ll call it, five interceptions on the season.

All Baker has to do is play just like he did last season over the final 11 games of 2020 to beat those projections easily. With the continuity of the system and all his weapons back, it doesn’t seem a far reach when talking expectations or projections.