Why the Cleveland Browns QB situation is best in the AFC North
2. AFC North QB accuracy
Numbers don’t tell the full story because they don’t account for how good the receivers are at getting open, whether the quarterback made the right throw, whether it was an easy throw or a difficult throw, whether the offensive line provided enough time for the play to develop, whether the receivers were good at catching the ball, etc.
Nevertheless, the numbers show completion percentage ranking Roethlisberger 65.6%, Burrow 65.3%, Jackson 64.4%, and Mayfield 62.8%. Those numbers are deceptive. In terms of dropping dimes, Burrow and Mayfield probably belong at the top of the list, with Roethlisberger at the bottom of the list. Big Ben was specializing in the shortest pass, with only 6.0 yards per attempt, compared to Burrow at 6.7 YPA, Jackson at 7.6 YPA and Baker at 7.7 YPA.
The short passing game was working for the Steelers, so there was nothing wrong with that However, we are not going to entertain the legend that Roethlisberger is the same strong armed kid that he was 15 years ago, and that he still throws a perfect spiral with deadly accuracy. If you are a Steelers fan and believe you see that, great, but that is not what this analyst sees at all.
This analyst stands by his previous, totally unbiased assessment that his passes now make quacking noises as they sail through the air, though I will grant you that 65% of the time a Steeler receiver still catches the dang thing, flying feathers and all.
Big Ben may make the Pro Bowl again, but if he does it will be because of his head smarts and quick release, not because of pinpoint accuracy or spiral passes now that he is 39.
Jackson sees more eight-man fronts than the other players, so he is able to buy himself some additional man-to-main coverage situations. Hence he completes a high percentage of his passes because of the total threat package, not just the circular error probability distribution of each pass.
Mayfield’s favorite targets were Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins, who were never all that open. They are not speedsters, so they only get a half step on the coverage, and it is up to Mayfield to feed them the ball into a small window where only they can catch it and not the defender. That is really what defines accuracy.
Frankly, without Odell Beckham, Jr., and with Jarvis Landry banged up, Mayfield’s wide receiver targets were not impressive compared to Pittsburgh (Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster or Cincinnati (Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and A.J. Green).
The eyeball test tells us that Mayfield and Burrow are the best at throwing dimes to receivers in the AFC North. Mayfield’s 7.7 YPA is impressive in view of who he was throwing to. Burrow’s numbers are more impressive because he was a rookie, and because he had a weaker offensive line to help him, and less support from the running game.
One of the big question marks about Mayfield is durability. Let’s talk about that next.