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Projecting the value of Baker Mayfield’s new Cleveland Browns contract

By Elliot Kennel

CLEVELAND, OHIO - JANUARY 03: Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Cleveland Browns scrambles for a first down during the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at FirstEnergy Stadium on January 03, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Browns defeated the Steelers 24-22. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OHIO - JANUARY 03: Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Cleveland Browns scrambles for a first down during the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at FirstEnergy Stadium on January 03, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Browns defeated the Steelers 24-22. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /
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Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) listens to a coach during an NFL football practice at the team’s training facility, Wednesday, June 16, 2021, in Berea, Ohio.Browns 10 /

So what is Baker Mayfield’s value?

Mayfield’s level of play justifies paying him among the top 10 or so NFL quarterbacks. However, he probably has less value than fellow 2018 first-round picks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Mayfield has never been to a Pro Bowl like Allen or Jackson, has not been voted league MVP like Jackson, and has only taken his team to the playoffs one time. Stats and most independent evaluators tend to rank Mayfield somewhere between eighth and fifteenth best quarterback in the NFL. On the other hand, he is still improving.

Remember also that the dollars won’t actually kick in until Year Six, or 2023. By that time, the chart will also include Jackson and Allen, and possibly new contracts for Matthew Stafford, and maybe a good year from Derek Carr might put him among the NFL elite again. Aaron Rodgers is overdue for a restructured deal also.

So a top 10 contract in 2023 should probably be sixth or seventh best based on the current chart. That would put Mayfield at around $35 million per year, or the Jared Goff level. That sounds like an insane amount of money. But remember, when Derek Carr signed his contract at $25 million per year, it was the highest in NFL history and we all rolled our eyes. Now it seems like chump change.

Moreover, this is a good year to sign a long-term deal. In 2021, the team salary cap allowance contracted to $182.5 million, down from $198.2 million in 2020. However, the 2022 salary cap allowance will be allowed to grow to $208.2 million, representing a rather hefty increase. Suddenly teams are filthy rich again, after all the cost-cutting this season. Baker Mayfield and his agent, Jack Mills, have just the right place to spend some of that money.

Can anyone visualize Andrew Berry and the Haslams pounding the table and saying, “My God, Mills, we simply can’t give your client the same money as Jared Goff is getting?”

That seems hard to imagine.

Hence, this analyst thinks Mayfield will get four years, at $33.5-35 million per year, or about $135 to $140 million, or about the Jared Goff level.  It might even be higher. The national media is surely going to lose its mind, but this is actually a very reasonable value given the likely future growth of the NFL salary cap allowance.

It’s an educated guess.  Do you think it is too high or too low?  You may offer your opinion below, if you like.

The next page contains the tabulated data from overthecap.com on quarterback salaries as well as a few comments.

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