Handicapping the Cleveland Browns defense in 2021

The Cleveland Browns defense gave up a few more points than the average team in 2020.

So, how good is the Cleveland Browns defense this season, and how can we talk about them in terms that analytics-minded sports fans — including oddsmakers — can understand?

What the analytics people really want to know is how tough will it be for the rest of the NFL to score points against the Browns this season.

To get to that point (page three of this essay), we will first start with the 2020 Browns defense to figure out how it is that they gave up a little more than the NFL average number of points per game.

Counting two playoff games, they gave up 478 points in 18 contests, or 26.5 points per game. This compares to the league average of 24.8 points surrendered per game, or 1.8 extra points per game.

Some might complain that the playoff games should not be counted on the grounds that they are more difficult than the typical NFL game, but as fans, we are really interested in how this team performs against top competition, so let’s not neglect these extra-tough games. We do plan on playing in January and February, right?

So, to reiterate, the Browns gave up 32 extra points over 18 games compared to the average NFL defense, or 1.8 points per game, just a little above average.

How did they get there? To back-calculate the total, a top-secret equation was used to determine how much each player moved the spread, developed by a secret source from Dawg Pound Daily (namely, your humble correspondent). But don’t worry, DPD has the secret source to explain to you how it works (also me). Here is how the formula goes:

Player’s influence on point spread = Player point value * snap pct * positional value

So what we are trying to calculate is how much influence each player has on the point spread. If the players are all average, then the defense would average 24.8 points surrendered per game, the NFL average.

The grade from Pro Football Focus is used as a starting point (you may use whatever player evaluation method you like up to an including your personal eyeballs), and translate that evaluation to how many points the player is worth per season (or per game, by dividing by the number 18 games, in the case of the Browns) with the higher-graded players moving the spread lower, and the lower-graded players moving the opponent point total strongly higher. We know how much the spread moves from experience by watching the spread at wynnbet.com, so we can calibrate the model.

Then that has to be multiplied by how often the player appears in the game. In the case of past history, we know exactly how many snaps, so if the player was on the field half the time, you have to multiply his score by 50%.

Finally, you have to take into account the positional value. You know that defensive ends and cornerbacks move the point total more than safeties and defensive tackles. We also believe that the Browns devalue the linebacker position a little more than other teams, so that implies that the linebackers are less influential in the Browns system.

Without further ado, the tweet embedded below contains this author’s best estimate for the Browns 2020 performance, and how it adds up to 32 extra points for the season, and -1.8 points per game. That is, the Browns were just slightly worse than average.

If you are going to bet on an individual game, you have to consider the matchup, field surface, tendencies of the officiating crew, and a myriad of other factors, but we will save all that for future articles. Right now we are just talking about how good the team was in 2020 and how much improvement to look for in 2021.

The one number that will make your eyes glaze over is the -30 points per season for Myles Garrett. Is this nuts? The next page argues that, if anything, the number is too low.