Handicapping the Cleveland Browns defense in 2021
![Cleveland Browns rookie cornerback Greg Newsome II, center, is congratulated by teammates John Johnson III, left, and Greedy Williams, right, after picking off a pass thrown by quarterback Baker Mayfield during an NFL football practice at the team's training facility, Thursday, June 17, 2021, in Berea, Ohio. [Jeff Lange / Akron Beacon Journal]Browns 1](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,w_1080,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/shape%2Fcover%2Fsport%2Fhttps-3A-2F-2Fdawgpounddaily-com-2Fwp-content-2Fuploads-2Fimagn-images-2F2017-2F07-2F16269690-850x560-cb1e6b136e5b8c9523d820b3ed69593fac46d4b45be4b1d46531bca548ff389f.jpg "Cleveland Browns rookie cornerback Greg Newsome II, center, is congratulated by teammates John Johnson III, left, and Greedy Williams, right, after picking off a pass thrown by quarterback Baker Mayfield during an NFL football practice at the team's training facility, Thursday, June 17, 2021, in Berea, Ohio. [Jeff Lange / Akron Beacon Journal]Browns 1")
Justifying Myles Garrett’s impact on the Cleveland Browns defense
An entire page is devoted to the calculation for Mr. Garrett because it is so mind-boggling that it requires additional explanation.
In particular, the amazing ability of Myles Garrett to cause strip-sack fumbles translated to several key changes of possessions last season, and it just seems to me that any estimate of Garrett’s impact less than 30 points over the season has to be too low. That’s only four or five extra touchdowns resulting from all those sacks and fumbles caused by the big guy.
If Garrett has to miss a game and he is replaced by someone who is not starting caliber, the theory goes, the spread should move by as much as four points. That is an outrageously high number for a defensive player, and people might be coming after the present author with a butterfly net for publishing the estimate.
How crazy is this? In 2017, the Browns played five games without Garret due to an ankle sprain. In 2019, they played six games without him due to a suspension. Here is what the points look like:
2017 With Garrett: 11 games, 270 points, 24.5 pts/game
Without Garrett: 5 games, 140 points, 28.0 pts/game , 3.5 pts/game difference.
2019 With Garrett: 10 games, 228 points, 22.8 pts/game
Without Garrett: 6 games, 165 points, 27.5 pts/game, 4.7 pts/game difference.
In 2017, Carl Nassib started in place of Garrett. In 2019, Chad Thomas got the start. Thomas is out of the league today and Nassib has started 37 NFL games and has 20.5 NFL sacks, so there’s not much doubt about where the greater drop-off in talent occurred. There is, however, no evidence that Nassib will ever have much of a career in rap music.
The data sample is small, and of course, there were other things going on, but the numbers hang together. Your eyeballs have already informed you that Myles Garrett is a superstar unlike anyone you have ever seen in Cleveland, but just in case you can’t believe your eyes, the numbers say the same thing.
It’s plausible, therefore, that Garrett is worth -30 points over the course of a season compared to the average NFL defensive end. If, God forbid, Garrett should go down this season, the 2021 Browns might plausibly be able to replace him with players who are actually starting-caliber defensive ends and the result might be a shift of only 1.5 to 2.0 points, unlike 2019 when the defense basically imploded on it itself when he was suspended.
Now, what about 2021? In this case, we have to take a wag at how well we think the new replacements will play compared to the former players.