Cleveland Browns: 5 best decisions from coach Kevin Stefanski

No. 4: Go for it on fourth down!

Kevin Stefanski is a believer in analytics rather than using his gut for critical decisions on whether to punt or go for it on fourth down or kick a field goal. To this, the geek wing of the Dawg Pound can only say “Woof! Woof! Woof!”

The old rules of thumb for kicking field goals are wrong, or at least they are not automatic as the old school believed. This geek cannot tell you exactly how the new wave coaches are arriving at their decisions, but it is possible to describe some of the factors that go into them.

For example on 4th-and-1, especially early in the game, the old-school cliché is that “you gotta take the points.” That’s not necessarily so. To make a long story short, the geeks are saying “it usually pays to gamble on fourth down.”

Field position matters greatly, and the factors that go into the decision are not simple. For example, say the Browns have 4th-and-goal from the one. If you make it, 7 points are better than 3. If they miss, the other team gets the ball at about the one-yard line.

However, your team is actually more likely to get the next score because of the edge in field position. That’s a little difficult to wrap your brain around, but the stat-meisters predict the other team will usually not mount a long drive and score. Your team will more likely get the ball back and make the next score. So go for the touchdown. And by the way, your team has Nick Chubb, so act like it. The Browns should be the best 4th-down team in the NFL.

Now, what about going for the 1st down rather than punting when the Browns have the ball roughly at midfield? That’s roughly comparable to generating the equivalent of a turnover. So once again, the number crunchers are recommending that it’s a good gamble to go for the big play in today’s NFL. Sometimes you fail, but the payoff makes it worth it.

To use an analogy with the NBA, for a long time the old-school coaches wouldn’t take advantage of the three-point rule when it came out because it was a lower risk to go for two-point shots. Three-point shooters missed more often, so the coaches couldn’t stand failing when the team missed more shots to attempt to shoot threes.

Finally, though, the new school coaches figured out — three points are worth more than two. Even if there are more misses, it is worth it to shoot three-pointers. Old school coaches either adapted or went the way of the dinosaurs.

In general, the idea is to obtain the best possible advice from the best possible geeks and then (usually) use the advice. I’ll take the new-school coach who makes apparently crazy decisions on 4th down, because he’s probably right in the long run.