Cleveland Browns should plan to trade out of Day 3 in 2023 NFL Draft
Browns 2020 Day 3 studs and duds
In 2020 the Browns had acceptable rookie performances from wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones (304 receiving yards) and tight end Harrison Bryant (238 receiving yards). Those performances didn’t necessarily merit Pro Bowl berths, but they at least did not embarrass themselves.
304 receiving yards from Peoples-Jones isn’t bad, corresponding to WR4, behind Jarvis Landry, Hollywood Higgins, and Odell Beckham, Jr. (who went on IR with an ACL injury but still posted 319 yards).
Kareem Hunt also posted 304 receiving yards, most of which came from out of the backfield, but some of which were from the slot receiver position. Peoples-Jones came up with a memorable game-breaking catch to beat the Bengals that year.
However, he danced like a rookie. Probably Jim Harbaugh taught him that dance.
DPJ has improved a lot since his rookie year, with 839 receiving yards last season.
Bryant was the third tight end behind Austin Hooper and David Njoku. Here again, the third tight end is not anywhere close to the MVP of the team, but it is at least a meaningful contribution. Thus, we are going to grade Bryant and Jones as rookie “studs,” but the bar is set rather low. They were not major contributors as rookies, but they at least contributed as rookies.
Less impressive was center Nick Harris. He received positive reviews in the preseason but struggled when he actually got the chance to perform. He was drafted as a center, but got into two games as a right guard and played essentially two full games (143 snaps) in relief of Wyatt Teller, giving up two sacks. His pass blocking was graded a bright red 34.0 by Pro Football Focus, one of the lowest grades they could hand out.
He had a start in 2021 and played better. A preseason injury in 2022 resulted in Ethan Pocic getting the first-string job at center, with Hjalte Froholdt becoming second-string.
By now, Harris has been trained as an NFL interior offensive lineman and should definitely make the team as a backup guard and center. In 2020, however, Harris was more of a dud than a stud.
To sum up, in the Berry era, there were three rookies who were drafted on Day 3 and graded as studs in their rookie year: Donovan Peoples-Jones (2020 Round 6), Harrison Bryant (2020 Round 4), and Jerome Ford (2022 Round 5). None of these players was really great, but they were acceptable as a third or fourth string.
Everyone else graded as a dud in their rookie season: Harris (2020 Round 4), James Hudson (2021 Round 4), Tommy Togiai (2021 Round 4), Tony Fields (2021 Round 5), Richard LeCounte (2021 Round 5) and Demetric Felton (2021 Round 6), Perrion Winfrey (2022 Round 4), Cade York (2022 Round 4), Michael Woods II (2022 Round 6), Isaiah Thomas (2022 Round 7) and Dawson Deaton (2022 Round 7).
We’re not saying their careers are duds, but we are saying they did not play well in their rookie seasons. By their third year, many of these players will show significant improvement. The question is whether, in the 2023 draft, your team wants to use five roster spots for players who probably will not contribute much until 2025 or 2026.
If they are trying to win now — and we believe they are — they need to trade out of Day 3 because these players are very unlikely to be helpful to a Super Bowl run. Instead, bundle a few and try to trade up to Day 2.
Alternatively, trade for better picks in 2024 and later. Veteran free agents can be obtained at the same cost and are much more reliable as a one-year proposition. Those draft picks will gain interest like money in the bank if they are traded for future year assets. Don’t worry, they will be there when it is time to rebuild.
