5 metrics that could make or break Browns' upset bid against Texans

The Cleveland Browns opened the week as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Houston Texans, and that line has surprisingly held steady despite the Browns announcing Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback and the Texans ruling out key starters like Danielle Hunter, Azeez Al-Shaair, and Keylan Rutledge.

No one’s giving the Browns much of a shot in this one despite their 3-0 home record and an opponent in Houston that’s been inconsistent at best this season.

Given Houston’s brutal injury report — the Browns, by comparison, are in good shape on that front — this matchup is probably trending closer to a coin flip. There are several key metrics that could end up tipping the scales once the ball gets kicked off on Sunday.

Here are five stats and confrontations that could make or break this sneaky-big Week 10 matchup for the AFC playoff picture.

Cleveland’s red-zone offense ranks last in the NFL

Entering Week 10, the Browns have scored a touchdown on just 39% of their red zone possessions, which is the league’s worst conversion rate. If there’s a metric that best illustrates their struggling rushing attack, that's the one.

Sunday presents an opportunity to buck that trend. Houston has already ruled out some key defenders like edge Danielle Hunter and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, and its defense has struggled to limit touchdowns when opponents cross the 20; the Texans are allowing a 78% conversion rate in their last three games, which ranks third-worst in football behind the Giants and Jets.

Deshaun Watson enters with NFL’s worst adjusted sack rate

One of the most glaring confrontations in this game will be the NFL’s most sacked quarterback, Watson, going against a defense tied for the league lead in total sacks (29). 

Watson enters this matchup with a 12% adjusted sack rate, which is the worst of any regular starting quarterback in the NFL this season, according to ESPN data analyst Aaron Schatz. Houston, meanwhile, converts an opponent’s dropback or passing play into a sack 9.51% of the time this season, which ranks second only behind the Minnesota Vikings.

C.J. Stroud and the Texans against Cleveland’s Cover 1 scheme

Cleveland’s defense plays Cover 1 on a league-high 39.8% of its opponent’s passing plays, but the Texans have fared extremely well against that coverage scheme this season.

Stroud’s 8.3 yards per attempt against Cover 1 are eighth most among qualified passers, per ESPN's Daniel Oyefusi, creating an interesting best-on-best confrontation with the Browns.

A must-win game for the Browns?

The Browns are two games up on Houston in the win column entering Week 10, and that’s reflected in their playoff odds.

Per ESPN Analytics, the Browns have a 9.6% chance of qualifying for the AFC playoffs as a wild-card team. With a win over Houston — which would drop the Texans to 3-6 — Cleveland’s odds would jump to 24.3%.

Given Houston’s standing as a playoff hopeful, you could argue that this game is as important as any remaining on the Browns’ schedule. A win on Sunday would knock Houston back while creating a head-to-head tiebreaker. 

Todd Monken could look to test the Texans deep

The Browns were noticeably more explosive on offense last week with Shedeur Sanders under center, and it will be interesting to see if Monken looks to continue that trend in what should be a favorable matchup for Watson.

The Texans rank 20th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt, which is a metric that should lead to opportunities for Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion, and the Browns’ young playmakers.

The question, of course, is whether Watson can take advantage. Through his eight starts, he’s just 8 for 29 for 272 yards and a 74.8 passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards. If Cleveland’s going to pull off an upset, Watson will have to be efficient on shot plays that fall into this category.

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