The Cleveland Browns will enter Week 8 sitting atop the AFC North division at 5-2, and Sunday’s rivalry game against the Pittsburgh Steelers represents a chance to create some separation.
Better yet, if the Browns are able to finish off a regular-season sweep of the Steelers — a feat the franchise hasn’t accomplished since 1988 — they could finally start turning the many skeptics over their whirlwind start into believers.
The Browns might be the NFL’s funnest story through seven games, but few are taking them seriously as actual AFC contenders. According to ESPN Analytics, Cleveland has a 5.5% chance of winning the division, well behind the Bengals (68.3%), Steelers (15.7%), and Ravens (10.5%).
No AFC North team is perfect, and that’s certainly true for the Browns, who have a league-worst minus-45 point differential in the first quarter of games this season (and a minus-13 point differential overall). But they’ve already won home games over the Steelers and Ravens, and the Bengals still have issues protecting quarterback Joe Burrow and stopping the run on defense.
The Browns are learning how to win, which is no small feat for one of the league’s youngest rosters. While the NFL world continues to brush the Browns off as nothing more than a feel-good story in October, here are five metrics that show why their hot start to 2026 is no fluke.
- 1. Defense causing ‘HAVOC’
- 2. Run stop win rate
- 3. Deshaun Watson clutch factor
- 4. Yards after the catch
- 5. Snaps played from 2025 and 2026 draft picks
1. Defense causing ‘HAVOC’
Even without future Hall of Fame pass rusher Myles Garrett and former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, the Browns’ success starts on defense. When it comes to HAVOC — or the percentage of plays where a defense records a QB pressure, tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup — the Browns are right there among the NFL elite at No. 3 overall.
The Browns enter Week 8 with a 41.3% HAVOC rating, trailing only the Minnesota Vikings (46.8%) and the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks (42.7%).
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald get a ton of credit nationally for being two of the top defensive minds in the game. First-year Browns DC Mike Rutenberg definitely isn’t being talked about enough.
2. Run stop win rate
Admittedly, this feels like bad timing, as the Browns just got gashed on the ground by Tony Pollard and the Tennessee Titans for 129 yards and three touchdowns last weekend. But Cleveland did have a huge goal-line stand in the second quarter that helped swing the momentum, and per ESPN’s run stop win rate metric, the Browns rank No. 1 in the NFL.
Here’s how ESPN Analytics describes its RSWR metric:
‘In run stop win rate, a defender can earn a win by doing any of the following: beating his blocker so he's in better position to stop the runner; disrupting the pocket or running lane by pushing his blocker backward; containing the runner such that he must adjust his running lane; or recording a tackle within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage.”
The play of edge defenders Jared Verse and Isaiah McGuire is likely contributing to the Browns’ high success rate. McGuire ranks No. 2 in the NFL in RSWR and Verse ranks in a tie for sixth.
3. Deshaun Watson clutch factor
Watson’s drive-to-drive consistency has left plenty to be desired, especially early in games. But in the clutch moments — more specifically, the final two minutes of each half — the veteran is putting up numbers worthy of a double take.
The analytics don’t love Watson’s full body of work this season, ranking him 24th of 38 qualifiers in expected points added (EPA), per SumerSports.
In the final two minutes of each half, Watson ranks No. 1 overall in EPA.
On his five game-winning drives this season, Watson has gone 21-of-27 passing for 229 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He’s been elite in the gotta-have-it situations, and that makes this Browns team extremely dangerous. Cleveland has trailed by at least five points in all five of its wins and by at least 10 in three of them.
The Browns don’t blink. If you let them hang around, they have the moxie to make you pay.
4. Yards after the catch
Outside of the end-of-game heroics, there aren’t many stats that favor the Browns’ offense.
Yards gained after the catch — or YAC — is becoming a metric that fans can get excited about.
One of the craziest stats from Cleveland’s Week 7 win over the Tennessee Titans was the 202 yards it gained after the catch. The Browns generated a whopping 491 net yards of offense overall, so that means 41% of their yards came via YAC.
It was Cleveland’s highest YAC output all season. The Browns moved into a tie with the Seahawks for No. 8 overall in that category with 841 yards on the season. They’re in some good company, too, trailing only the Steelers (1,037), Rams (955), Bears (939), Chiefs (931), Ravens (909), Packers (900), and Falcons (855).
5. Snaps played from 2025 and 2026 draft picks
This might be the most telling metric of all. The Browns aren’t only winning, they’re doing so with the majority of their starters being under the age of 25.
Cleveland now has over 3,000 total snaps played from its 2025 and 2026 draft picks this season, trailing only the rebuilding Miami Dolphins, per ESPN.
This isn’t a team full of entitled veterans looking to collect paychecks on Sundays. This is a young Browns roster full of players looking to contribute and make a name for themselves. What Cleveland lacks in experience, it makes up for with pure grit and determination.
It’s probably too early to start labeling the Browns an AFC contender. Todd Monken’s group is definitely ahead of schedule, though, based on the team’s low expectations entering the year.
At some point, a team sheds the “plucky” label and starts getting the respect around the league that it deserves. The Browns have been opening eyes for the better part of two months, and there’s reason to believe that the good times will keep on rolling.
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