Week 5 was always going to be a test for Todd Monken and the Cleveland Browns. They entered that road game against the Jets coming off a mini bye week, having scored an emotional win over bitter AFC North rival Pittsburgh on the prior Thursday night.
There was also heavy rain in the forecast early in the week courtesy of Hurricane Isaias. So along with a step down in competition, Cleveland knew it would be dealing with bad weather in East Rutherford.
The Browns failed that test, and Monken’s game plan on offense is worthy of serious criticism.
NFL data analyst Warren Sharp shared several stats that made Monken’s offensive approach against a good Jets defense in the rain hard to defend. The Browns have an inexperienced coaching staff, with the head coach and all three top coordinators in first-time roles, and that inexperience showed on Sunday — right from the start.
“I think Todd Monken has some good ideas. He’s working with an interesting hand that he’s dealt with there with Deshaun Watson and those receivers and a lack of run game,” Sharp said. “But this offensive game plan in the pouring-down rain against the New York Jets did not show a lot of creativity whatsoever. The New York Jets won the game, deservedly so.”
Todd Monken's Week 5 game plan created problems the Browns couldn't overcome
Stat No. 1 — 96.9% shotgun rate
Browns fans have probably noticed their team living in the shotgun on offense. They found success with a more shotgun-heavy approach during the second half of the Tampa Bay game in Week 2 and have been operating that way ever since.
Cleveland now leads the NFL through five weeks with a 77.6% shotgun rate, after entering Week 5 with the second-highest usage, per Sharp Football Analysis. Sunday’s game solidified that top spot. In bad weather, with ball handling clearly an issue, the Browns still put Watson back in the shotgun 97% of the time, which was the highest rate in football.
Watson wound up getting sacked eight times, and running back Quinshon Judkins was limited to 44 scoreless yards on 14 attempts.
It would be surprising to see Cleveland’s shotgun rate continue at such a high clip this weekend against the Ravens, based on Monken’s latest comments on Monday. But it’s safe to say that the game plan against the Jets did not work.
“Each week you’re pivoting,” Monken said. “You want to have enough in your offense to not be pigeonholed as to one way to be able to move the football. Certainly, it’s not in stone. It’s in sand, and we’re going to do what we feel like we need to do going forward.”
Stat No. 2 — 9.3 air yards per attempt
The Browns hadn’t been pushing the ball down the field much over the first four weeks. Per Sharp, that changed during Sunday’s rain game.
Cleveland decided to pick Week 5 to start pushing the envelope through the air. Watson averaged 9.3 air yards per attempt and hit a couple deep ones to Isaiah Bond (30 yards) and Denzel Boston (29-yard touchdown).
The conditions obviously weren’t conducive for that kind of aggressiveness, especially not in a game that was close on the scoreboard throughout. The deep passing game led Watson to 45.4% completions.
“In the pouring down rain, in a game the Jets never led by multiple scores,” Sharp lamented, "this is a close game. They’re chucking the ball deep down the field out of shotgun.”
Stat No. 3 — 3.18 seconds per pass attempt
Cleveland’s longer-developing plays out of the shotgun led Watson to hold onto the football.
Watson averaged 3.18 seconds per attempt, which was the fourth-highest rate of any quarterback in Week 5, according to Sharp. That, coupled with a relentless Jets blitz rate, led to constant duress and a ridiculous amount of sacks (20% per dropback).
Stat No. 4 — 12.1 yards to go average on third downs in the second half
This one is eye-opening. The Browns couldn’t get the run game going and basically refused to put Watson under center in the second half.
Perhaps Monken was worried about the center-quarterback exchange in the rain, but the team’s lack of efficiency on early downs led to a number of third-and-a-mile situations.
Helped by one third-and-30 nightmare and a third-and-19, Cleveland’s yards-to-go average on third downs was 12.1 in the second half against the Jets. That would be a paralyzing stat for any offense.
Stat No. 5 — 23% success rate on passing plays in the second half
Monken kept the football in Watson’s hands in the second half likely out of necessity, but with starting wideout KC Concepcion out of the game with a concussion, Cleveland’s pass plays in the second half had the lowest success rate in the NFL for Week 5.
Per Sharp, Cleveland’s second-half pass plays yielded a 23% success rate, which measures how often an offense stays on schedule for a first down or touchdown.
All of these stats blend together, and they paint an ugly picture for Cleveland’s coaching staff. With 10 days to prepare, the Browns’ game plan for Sunday’s weather game against a very beatable Jets team didn’t make sense.
It will be interesting to see how Monken and company pivot in Week 6. At the very least, Browns fans should expect to see more creativity with Watson under center. A 97% shotgun rate is no way to live, especially against top defensive coaches like the Jets’ Aaron Glenn and the Ravens’ Jesse Minter.
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