Loss after loss, week after week, and the Cleveland Browns don't appear to be getting any better. At 1-6, the team finds itself at the bottom of an AFC North that is stacked with talented teams like the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. Even the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have a strange quarterback carousel between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, are 5-2.
But, are the Browns truly the worst team in the entire NFL? There's an excellent way to gauge this - using defense-adjusted value over average, or DVOA. This stat measures play by play success against the league average. Essentially, everything the Browns do on the football field is being propped up against how the rest of the league is faring.
Based on just how poorly Cleveland's performed this season so far, especially on offense, you could assume that the team's DVOA is quite low. That'd be the correct assumption, and in fact, it's DVOA is negative - which means, the Browns are experiencing negative success per play as opposed to gaining any advantage at all by simply running a play.
Let's take a look at current team DVOA standings through seven weeks of NFL action.
Team | Total DVOA |
|---|---|
Baltimore Ravens | 40.5% |
Detroit Lions | 35.9% |
Minnesota Vikings | 34.5% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 29.4% |
Buffalo Bills | 23.4% |
Houston Texans | 19.2% |
Washington Commanders | 19.2% |
Green Bay Packers | 18.5% |
San Francisco 49ers | 15% |
Denver Broncos | 14.4% |
Seattle Seahawks | 13.4% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 10.4% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9.99% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.6% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 5.7% |
Atlanta Falcons | 3.5% |
Chicago Bears | 2.1% |
Philadelphia Eagles | 1.0% |
Indianapolis Colts | -2.1% |
Arizona Cardinals | -2.2% |
New Orleans Saints | -4.0% |
Los Angeles Rams | -9.6% |
Dallas Cowboys | -12% |
New York Giants | -13.3% |
New York Jets | -15% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | -17% |
Tennessee Titans | -23% |
Las Vegas Raiders | -33.2% |
Miami Dolphins | -34.9% |
New England Patriots | -40.8% |
Cleveland Browns | -45% |
Carolina Panthers | -47.7% |
Looking at these standings, it makes sense how team DVOA is a heavily relied upon statistic to understand which teams are genuinely dominant so far on the season compared to just looking at standings. For example, the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions have worse records than the Kansas City Chiefs, yet have higher team DVOA's than the defending championships.
So, seeing the Browns so far down on this list is telling for two reasons. One, it shows that its record of 1-6 is a perfect reflection of just how badly the team is performing. Secondly, it actually doubles down on that poor play by reflecting that not only is this a losing football team, but one that is generating negative plays to the tune of 45 percent of the time.
Jameis Winston starting could shake this up
Will incorporating Jameis Winston into this offense do anything for Cleveland? It's possible - Winston is reportedly guaranteed to start at QB1 in Week 8 against another divisional rival in the Ravens, with newly signed backup QB Bailey Zappe set to back him up as Dorian Thompson-Robinson is dealing with a finger injury he suffered in Week 7.
Winston looked decisive and confident in garbage time in Week 7. That's no knock on him or touchdown scoring drive he led the Browns on - the score actually led to an onside kick that could have made the contest interesting, as the Cincinnati Bengals hadn't run the score up by that point. While that was unsuccessful, it was the effort that impressed fans and, clearly, the coaching staff.