We have an AFC North battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns in Week 11. When these two teams played earlier this season in the Steel City, they gave their fans a lot to cheer for under the primetime lights.
Sunday’s game will be slightly different as rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson will make his second career start on Sunday for the Browns. The sportsbooks don’t think a lot of points will be scored in Cleveland, but anything can happen when these two teams link up.
I found two Browns props with some value and a Steelers prop that should hit despite the matchup.
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Best NFL Prop Bets for Steelers vs. Browns in Week 11
- Jerome Ford OVER 54.5 rushing yards
- David Njoku OVER 3.5 receptions
- Diontae Johnson OVER 45.5 receiving yards
Jerome Ford OVER 54.5 rushing yards
For the Browns to pick up their second-straight division win on Sunday, they must run the ball successfully with Ford and Kareem Hunt. The second-year running back had a fantastic performance last week against the Ravens, rushing for a career-high 107 yards on 17 carries.
Last week’s performance was the second time Ford has run for 100-plus yards this season. In Week 2 against the Steelers, Ford produced 106 yards on 16 carries and averaged 6.6 yards per attempt.
The 23-year-old running back has only gone OVER 54.5 rushing yards in four out of nine games this season. The odds aren’t on Ford’s side, but the Steelers’ defense has struggled against the run, allowing 131.2 yards per game (eighth-most in the NFL). I expect to see a heavy dose of Ford and Hunt with a rookie quarterback making his second career start.
David Njoku OVER 3.5 receptions
When you have a rookie quarterback making his career start, the running game and the tight end are their best friends. Njoku has been one of the more consistent pass catchers this year for the Browns, recording 38 receptions (54 targets) for 377 yards and two touchdowns.
Njoku was one of Dorian Thompson-Robinson's favorite targets in his first start as he had six receptions (seven targets) for 46 yards. This trend should continue on Sunday, even though the Steelers are ranked second in DVOA-TE, per ftnfantasy.com.
In Week 2 against the Steelers, Njoku had four receptions (four targets) for 48 yards. He’s also gone OVER 3.5 receptions in seven out of nine games this season, making it one of my favorite props for Sunday’s game.
Diontae Johnson OVER 45.5 receiving yards
Johnson was a non-factor in the Steelers’ last game against the Packers, as he only had one reception (four targets) for 17 yards. Pittsburgh leaned on its running game against Green Bay, which helped them secure the win.
However, it was still surprising to see Johnson fade back into obscurity. The veteran receiver will try to bounce back against the stout Browns’ pass defense, which allows the third-fewest yards to receivers this season. It’s not the best matchup for Johnson, but Cleveland’s pass defense isn’t unstoppable, as WR1s are averaging 68.7 yards per game.
If the Steelers keep Kenny Pickett upright in the pocket, Johnson can get at least 46 receiving yards. He’s gone OVER 45.5 receiving yards in four out of five games this season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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