The NFL offseason is officially underway, with the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror and the draft combine happening this week in Indianapolis. Throughout the next couple of months, front offices will be tasked with evaluating talent via the college pool, as well as that already on their rosters. Trades, players to be released, salary cap maneuvers, and free agency also will take place. For the Cleveland Browns, many questions must soon be answered in the days to follow, regarding what the roster will look like for the 2024 season.
After making an influx of changes within the offensive coaching staff, the play of Deshaun Watson will continue to be scrutinized going forward, until the perceived franchise quarterback can show signs on the field similar to that of his time with the Houston Texans — when he was widely considered a top-five quarterback in the league. This is exacerbated further by the success of Joe Flacco, who signed with the Browns late in the season and led the team to the playoffs, finishing with a 4-1 record as a starter.
Elsewhere, the status of running back Nick Chubb, who is coming off a severe knee injury which required multiple surgeries to repair, is a question mark. Depth at other positions, like wide receiver, defensive line, and linebacker, must also be addressed.
The Browns head into the draft without a first-round pick for the third consecutive year due to the spring 2022 trade for the previously mentioned Watson, which saw the team send three first-round picks, plus more, to the Houston Texans. Because of this, general manager Andrew Berry must be wise with his remaining picks, of which he has seven, with just two coming in the first four rounds (selections 54 and 85).
Finding depth to add to an already formidable roster is the priority. Thankfully for Browns fans, Berry has shown a propensity for acquiring talent in the middle of the draft, with key contributors such as Martin Emerson Jr, Jerome Ford, and Dawand Jones all being selected in the third round or later of their respective draft classes.
Because of the success of building a winning roster since being named GM in the offseason of 2020, it is rumored that the Browns will explore extending Berry, as well as head coach Kevin Stefanski, at some point in the coming weeks. Both are entering the final year of the five-year deals they signed with the Browns in 2020, and are expected to accept new deals to remain with the team going forward, should they be offered, despite being polarizing figures amongst the fan base.
While nothing has yet been announced on an official basis, fans are safe to continue to make their own assumptions for the time being, as any details of potential agreements are likely still weeks away from being made public. Leading up to the start of the league's new year on March 13th, which is also the start of free agency, most news will be centered around rumors and hearsay. Today, we buy or sell the validity of five of the most interesting rumors surrounding the Browns so far this offseason.
Joe Flacco will not return to the Browns in 2024: Buy
This isn't a matter of Joe Flacco's performance during his short stint with the Browns at the end of the season. In fact, given the circumstances of not being a full-time starter in over a year and a half and joining the franchise off of his couch in mid-November, Flacco was nothing short of extraordinary.
While throwing for 1,616 yards and 13 touchdowns in just five games played, Flacco unlocked a Browns offense that was inconsistent for most of the season, especially behind the arms of PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. With Flacco throwing the ball, Amari Cooper experienced a record-breaking performance against the Texans in week 16m going for 265 yards and two touchdowns. Tight end David Njoku also saw his production increase, averaging over 90 yards and a touchdown per game with Flacco under center.
However, with a highly-talented roster filled with handsomely paid players, the business side of roster construction will reign supreme.
Starting quarterback Deshaun Watson currently leads the league in projected 2024 cap hit, sitting at just under $64 million, although Andrew Berry will almost surely have discussions with Watson and his representatives regarding a contract restructure to save cap space, just as they did at this time last offseason.
Star players like Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, Nick Chubb, and Amari Cooper also currently hold high numbers against the cap for 2024. And, while Berry and his staff have proven themselves to have an excellent understanding of the cap itself, sacrifices must be made to retain top talent on the roster. Unfortunately for Flacco, and the fans that desire to see him back, he will likely be one of the sacrifices.
Nick Chubb and David Njoku will be cut: Sell
Sell. And then grab it back, so it can be sold again.
To be put in the category of "it's the league's dead period and we need something to talk about", some media outlets have floated the idea that the Browns could cut David Njoku and/or Nick Chubb.
In the case of Njoku, who is still just 27 years old, and coming off a career year that saw him place personal bests in yards, receptions, and touchdowns, it makes no sense for the Browns to cut ties with the Pro Bowl tight end, as doing so would only save the team roughly $5 million in cap space with a post-June 1st designation, and would actually cost the Browns $9 million in space to do so before June 1st, according to data provided by OverTheCap.com. This is in connection to the four-year extension he signed in the 2022 offseason.
Admittedly, the situation with Chubb is a little bit more complicated. Unless you're Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers (who are aided by the minuscule contract of QB Brock Purdy), it's not often that a Super Bowl-contending team absorbs a cap hit from a running back like the $15.825 million number Chubb comes with for 2024. Going into his seventh season and coming off a devastating knee injury only further adds to the complexion.
However, with the news late last week that the NFL's salary cap would be raised by over $30 million, the chance of the Browns outright releasing their beloved star feels as low as ever, if it wasn't already. It's much more likely that Berry and the front office approach Chubb about a new contract, which will add years while also lowering the blow to the salary cap.
The Browns have a salary cap problem: Sell
Don't be confused by the previous mentions of potential cap savings. In the NFL, money is power, and it's only logical to have as much of it available as possible.
It's a wide misconception amongst Browns fans that the team is in salary cap jail. Perhaps this is due to the regularity of Deshaun Watson's contract being used as a punchline. Or maybe it has more to do with websites showing the Browns as currently being almost $8 million over the cap. Regardless, for anyone worried about the roster having to be gutted to suffice the numbers, take a deep breath and relax. Berry and company know what they're doing.
With the league rules around contract restructures, as well as the benefit of having a cash-rich owner willing to pay for said restructures, the Browns have an advantage that most teams simply don't have. In fact, when adding the potential restructures of Watson, Amari Cooper, and Denzel Ward, along with the league's recent cap increase, the front office could free up around $50 million in space to use this offseason.
This isn't a small deal, as the team looks to add veterans via both trades and free agency, while current Browns such as Greg Newsome, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and Martin Emerson Jr will all be looking for contract extensions in the next 12 months.
The current core of the roster will remain in Cleveland throughout the primes of their careers, so long as management wants them to do so. For a more in-depth breakdown of the stability of the way the Browns are operating, check out this article, written by Jack Duffin of the Orange and Brown Report.
Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski will be given extensions: Buy
In four years, the Berry and Stefanski regime has flipped the Browns from being one of the most embarrassing franchises in all of professional sports into a team that the league is now forced to take seriously.
On the field, Stefanski has led Cleveland to 39 wins in his four seasons dating back to 2020. The Browns won 42 games combined between the years of 2010 and 2019. Despite often being under-appreciated by a portion of the Browns fan base, Stefanski's work hasn't gone unnoticed nationally, as he recently became only the 10th head coach in league history to win multiple coach of the year awards.
His performance during the 2023 season was remarkable, leading his team to an 11-6 record and a playoff birth, despite having started five different quarterbacks and having the rest of the roster brutalized by injuries.
No coach would be able to win without talent, however, and that's where Andrew Berry enters the conversation. It's valid that Berry inherited a talented roster, as Pro Bowlers Myles Garrett, Nick Chubb, Denzel Ward, Joel Bitonio, and Wyatt Teller preceded Berry's arrival in Cleveland. However, since then, Berry has added the talent necessary to take the team to the next level, via trades, free agency, and the draft alike.
Jack Conklin, Ethan Pocic, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Obo Okoronkwo were signed long-term as free agents. Maurice Hurst, Shelby Harris, and Anthony Walker all played last season on one-year deals. Amari Cooper and ZaDarius Smith were traded for in the 2022 and 2023 offseasons. Grant Delpit, Owusu-Koramoah, Newsome, Emerson, Alex Wright, Dawand Jones, and Cam Mitchell were all drafted by Berry. If Deshaun Watson, who was also acquired via trade, ends up working out, Berry should be regarded as a top GM in the game.
Despite being criticized at times by fans, like Stefanski, Berry absolutely deserves a new contract that will keep him in Cleveland for the forseeable future.
Stefanski will give up play calling: Sell
Earlier this month, the Browns officially announced the hire of Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator, replacing Alex Van Pelt, who had been with the team for four seasons.
Van Pelt, like Stefanski, prefers a scheme focused around running the ball and setting up play action with the QB under center, using time-based routes often including multiple tight end formations. Dorsey, however, is known for having spent time as QB coach with Cam Newton during the former MVP's prime years with the Carolina Panthers, as well as spending four and a half seasons in Buffalo as QB coach and offensive coordinator, guiding dynamic QB Josh Allen through the beginning of his career.
Dorsey is expected to add a new element to Stefanski's offense, focusing more on straight drop-back passing and run-pass options, operating almost purely out of the shotgun. Interestingly, Newton and Allen have found success in similar schemes, as Deshaun Watson has a similar skillset as the two dual-threat quarterbacks.
That being said, it's fair to ask whether or not Stefanski, who has been the team's playcaller since his hire in 2020, would be willing to release those duties to Dorsey in 2024. Dorsey, despite being fired by Buffalo during this past season, has experience calling plays for a successful offense. In fact, despite belief to the contrary, the Bills offense declined in most areas after the offensive coordinator switch.
Stefanski is viewed by most as an elite play-caller in his own right. He has two postseason appearances and two Coach of the Year awards to buttress the point. The change in scheme, however, could complicate things, as it is unknown if Stefanski would have the same feel for calling the new plays as he did in years past.
The question, then, is whether or not Stefanski will trust Dorsey to take full control of the offense. Or, if not a matter of trust, whether or not Stefanski simply wants to give up those duties.
It is a question that will likely remain unanswered until August when preseason begins, and one that could go either way. But for now, while maintaining the option to change up viewpoints later, "sell" seems like the more likely answer.