In the modern NFL landscape of scaled rookie contracts and booming annual salary cap increases, first-round draft picks are eyeing Year 4 as their chance to cash in.
The system is set up for those premium players to establish themselves over their required first three years of service time, and then negotiate a multi-year mega deal as soon as they become eligible. The class of 2023 has become a shining example — one the Cleveland Browns have unfortunately had to watch play out from the sidelines.
Nine of the 2023 NFL Draft’s top 23 selections have already cashed in with market-setting deals, led by Texans edge rusher Will Anderson (three years, $150 million), Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter (four years, $152 million), and Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (four years, $168.6 million).
For those nine teams, it’s simply the cost of doing business — and it’s a good problem to have. From running backs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs to offensive linemen Darnell Wright and Peter Skoronski, a lucrative extension equates to your team nailing a first-round draft pick and establishing a franchise cornerstone. And in the 2023 draft, there were many.
The Browns finished 7-10 during the 2022 regular season and would have selected No. 12 overall in 2023 if they had their pick. It belonged to the Texans, though, from the prior year’s Deshaun Watson trade, and Houston packaged it to move up to No. 3 overall and land Anderson, who has since developed into one of the game’s top game-wreckers.
Cleveland then opted not to trade back into the first round. Instead, it shipped pick No. 42 overall in the second round to the New York Jets in exchange for wide receiver Elijah Moore and the Jets’ third-round selection, No. 74 overall. The Browns used that pick to draft wide receiver Cedric Tillman, who entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract is currently buried on the depth chart and in danger of getting cut or traded.
It all adds up to one massive what-if. Entering 2026, the Browns have hordes of young talent but remain short on clear, elite cornerstone players. The first round of 2023 was so stacked, Cleveland likely could have hit a difference-maker blindfolded.
The Deshaun Watson trade continues to shape the Cleveland Browns' future
It’s never fair to play the revisionist history game. In the spring of 2023, the Browns still had hope that their all-in move for Watson would pay off. He was limited to six starts in 2022 due to his 11-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. He didn’t exactly light it up on the field, but the Browns went 3-3 to finish his first year, enough to qualify for cautious optimism entering the 2023 season.
Three years later, it’s impossible not to look back and lament what could have been. The Browns felt compelled to trade one of the best defensive players in NFL history in Myles Garrett this offseason due in part to the roster carnage of the Watson era. Cleveland traded three first-round picks, on top of other draft capital, to win the Watson sweepstakes. The team’s inexperience, youth, and low expectations entering 2026 is a direct result of that.
This 2023 draft class is turning out to be especially painful through that lens.
Again, this isn't a healthy game for fans to play. But Cleveland’s original 12th overall pick ended up being Gibbs, who’s now the highest-paid running back in NFL history. Other star players like cornerback Christian Gonzalez, linebacker Jack Campbell, and wide receivers Smith-Njigba and Zay Flowers were all taken outside of the top 12. With Cleveland ultimately eyeing Moore from the Jets and Tillman with their first selection of that draft, it’s hard to envision a world where Smith-Njigba, the prized Ohio State product, wouldn’t be wearing the orange and brown right now had the Watson trade never happened.
The Browns' next chapter could begin with one hard-earned lesson
To refresh a line from earlier, it's simply the price of doing business. Cleveland made a massive gamble on what it deemed to be a Super Bowl window. As owner Jimmy Haslam has admitted, team leadership whiffed massively on that decision.
The only solace Browns fans can take is that similar big swings haven’t been taken since. The team has instead taken its medicine, appears to have crushed back-to-back drafts, and is primed to attack another one in 2027 holding 11 overall picks, including two in the first round.
Next year could bring similar extension-related pain. The 2024 draft class, led by quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels, could be poised to earn contracts that will make fans’ heads spin next offseason.
It certainly isn’t fun to be watching on the sideline as other team's pay their now established stars. But Cleveland's finally on the right path now, and it took hitting rock bottom and some harsh lessons to get here.
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