Ravens, Steelers may give Browns fans indigestion on Thanksgiving

How good are the Steelers, Ravens compared to the Browns?

The AFC North has been tough from top to bottom this season, although the Bengals are about to disappear from view now that they have lost Joe Burrow. But the Ravens have outscored their opponents by 73 points this season. The only teams that have outscored their teams by 73 or more points are the New Orleans Saints, also with 73, the  Kansas City Chiefs with 107, and the team they are playing, the Steelers, with 124.

How good are these teams, statistically speaking? One measure is Pythagorean win percentage, which calculates how many wins the team is expected to have based on points and opponents’ points. An equation recommended by Football Outsiders is:

Pythagorean win pct = (points)^2.37/[(points)^2.37 +(opponents’ points^2.37)]

Applying this equation, all four teams have win probabilities and should be about 7-3, with the Steelers only slightly closer to 8-2. But random luck can make a difference of two or three wins in a given season, and so a statistician might infer that the Steelers, Chiefs, and Saints have been lucky this season, and the Ravens have been unlucky.

Also, show are the numbers for our Cleveland Browns, who have actually been outscored by their opponents this season, and thus are fortunate indeed to post a winning record. They have won the close games, but when they have lost it has been by epic scores.

Team                             Points       Opp Points   W    L      Win pct      Pyth pct  Expected W-L Luck

Pittsburgh Steelers         298             174         10     0     1.000         .746             7.5 – 2.5

Kansas CIty Chiefs           321              214          9     1       .900          .692             6.9 – 3.1

Baltimore Ravens            268              195          6     4       .600          .680             6.8 – 3.2

New Orleans Saints        295               222         8     2       .800           .662             6.6 – 3.4

Cleveland Browns           238               261         7     3       .700           .445             4.5 – 5.5

To make a long story short, the Browns are improving, and need to improve still further in order to compete against the top teams of the NFL. Things are trending in the right direction, but the Browns have not arrived yet.