Cleveland Browns in last place versus the spread
Somehow the Cleveland Browns manage to be favored, win, but fail to cover
The Cleveland Browns are 8-3 heading into their game against the Tennessee Titans, but only 4-7 against the spread, according to Vegasinsider.com, suggesting that the betting public has actually liked the Browns more than the oddsmakers.
When you stop and think about it, it is very difficult for a team to overachieve in terms of actual won-loss record while underperforming expectations for point spreads. The three actual Cleveland losses (Ravens, Steelers, Raiders), were train wrecks so that accounts for three of the seven losses against the spread. But that means that included in eight actual wins were four wins in which they were favored to win, but failed to cover the spread. It’s weird to think that the Browns were favored so often, given their reputation, but we are talking Browns football, so anything is possible.
To reframe the data, Cleveland is 8-3, but they seem to be experts at winning without covering the point spread. The pro-Browns betting public has apparently been more optimistic than the oddsmakers, and Vegas has made money on them, while they have gone 8-3. So did the Browns fans expect something better than 8-3? This is quirky, to say the least.
The absolute worst Browns loss (spread loss that is) has to have been the Texans game, in which Nick Chubb elected to not score a touchdown, allowing Baker Mayfield to take a couple of kneel-downs in the victory formation to drain the clock and prevent Deshaun Watson from carrying out any last-second miracles. The Browns won the game but did not cover the spread on that play.
Cleveland’s over-under is 6-5, meaning that the scoring is reasonably balanced compared to expectations. Or, you could interpret it as meaning that the Browns defense has been leaky at the appropriate times without costing victories in close games. They have given up more points than they have scored this season, another reason why it is weird that they would be the favorite in most of their games.
Elsewhere around the AFC North, the Steelers are tops against the spread at 8-3. That makes sense, given that they were not expected to be quite as good as 11-0 at this point in the season.
The Bengals are in second place at 7-4, as Joe Burrow kept them in several games. They really were better than most people thought with Burrow at the controls, until coach Zac Taylor finally succeeded in getting him injured, by putting the ball up 40 and 50 times a game and having him get sacked as many times as possible. This was the same method the Browns used to shorten Tim Couch‘s career, so we can only hope that for Burrow’s sake they do not do the same thing to Burrow. Hey, we are happy to see the Bengals flop, but not like this.
The Ravens have also come apart due to injuries and self-inflicted Covid-19 violations, but they stand at 5-5-1 versus the spread and 6-5 overall. Their offense has sputtered this season, and so their over-under is only 4-7. Amazingly, they are estimated by Football Outsiders to still have a 65.3 percent chance to win 10 games and win a wild card, which is only slightly less probably than the Browns’ chances.
Football Outsiders is assuming that the Ravens have a very high chance of going 4-1, while they expect the Browns to stumble in at 2-3. These scenarios are coupled because the two teams play each other next week.
TEAM Actual W-L Vs. Spread Over-Under pct chance for playoffs
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 11-0 8-3 5-5-1 100.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 8-3 4-7 6-5 68.3%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 6-5 5-5-1 4-7 65.3%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 2-8-1 7-4 6-5 0.0%
There is a substantial chance that both the Browns and Ravens could get in at 10-6, at least in the estimation of Football Outsiders. A Browns’ victory over the Ravens next week would not kill the Ravens chances (assuming they win this week versus the Cowboys), but would probably force them to win all of their remaining games.
For what it is worth, Colin Cowherd, the prince of Browns skeptics, is on record for predicting that the Browns will lose to Tennessee, lose to Baltimore, and lose to Pittsburgh and fail to make the playoffs. Wowzers. To not make the playoffs, the Browns have to probably go 9-7, meaning that they would probably have to lose to one of the New York teams; either the Jets or the Giants.
Next. Cowherd claims Browns will move on from Baker with loss to Titans. dark
It would be hard for the Browns to blow it, but granted, it is the NFL and it is not impossible. At least Cowherd called his shot on national television, so give him credit for guts, at least. We shall see if he makes good on his prediction.