Cleveland Browns can balance ‘win now’ and ‘draft for the future’

Teams that trade up for a QB while trading away their future

Would an NFL team really be stupid enough to trade away their future at the same time that they trade up for a rookie quarterback? Sure! The pros can be just as dumb as us fans and sometimes even worse.

This is a classic stupid mistake that NFL organizations make. Trading away future draft picks is part of a “win now” strategy while drafting a rookie quarterback is a “win later” move that almost never works in the first year.

Then, the next year, as the quarterback is trying to emerge as a good player, there is a shortage of weapons because the draft picks have been depleted.

The twin moves of weakening future drafts and drafting a rookie quarterback are football suicide. This almost never works.

The Browns gave this kind of deal to Jerry Jones and the Cowboys because they wanted to draft quarterback Brady Quinn at 22nd overall (780 points). They offered the Cowboys their 2007 second-round pick (540 points) and their 2008 Round 1 pick (1,000 points minus discount). In other words, the discount was 76 percent to get Quinn. So the Browns got their quarterback, but how were they going to build a team with no Round 1 pick the next season?

Browns get

2007 Round 1     22nd overall              worth   780 points  Brady Quinn

Cowboys get

2007  Round 2   36th overall              worth    540  points
2008  Round 1         tbd                         worth  1,000  points x (100%-discount)

In 2008, the Browns managed to trade away their 2008 Round 1, Round 2, and Round 3 picks, and then as Quinn entered his second year, they were mystified why they could not improve the team.  Well, be mystified no more.

Another draft trade involving the Browns occurred in 2016, when they let the Texans move up.

Texans get

2016 Round 1     12th overall              worth  1200 points  Deshaun Watson

Browns get

2016  Round 1     26th overall             worth     700  points
2017  Round 1         tbd                         worth  1,000  points x (100%-discount)

At the time the valuation was made the TBD 2017 pick was assumed to be an average pick worth 1,000 points (it later turned out to be fourth overall, Denzel Ward).

For this deal to make sense, at least on paper, that 2017 pick had to be discounted 50 percent. That is, 700 +1,000-500 = 1,200 points.

Here again, an insane discount was offered on future draft picks in order to get a quarterback. However, let’s give Bill O’Brien some credit. He believed in DeShaun Watson’s football skills, while this analyst and many others were scared silly over his 17 INTs in his last season at Clemson and did not want the Browns to draft him. I admit, I really did have DeShone Kizer rated higher than Watson, although no way did I want DeShone to start after his sophomore year at Notre Dame.

The point is, Houston was crazy to trade away its future first-round draft pick to draft a quarterback. Then they compounded the error by doing it again. They are coming into 2021 with no first-round pick, no second-round pick, and a payroll that was so bloated that they were really forced to grant J.J. Watt his free agency. The result is a losing record and no prospect of a rapid turnaround, even putting aside Mr. Watson’s legal troubles.

Remember Colin Cowherd chortling about the New York Jets making the bold move to get their dude, Sam Darnold? This was another case of trading the future to get an inexperienced rookie to “win now” and then being mystified why he did not develop.

Remember, Darnold had only two seasons as a starter and a redshirt year. What could possibly go wrong?

Jets get

2018 1st Round     3rd overall            worth  2,200 points  Sudden Sam Darnold

Colts get

2018 1st Round     6th overall             worth 1,600 points

2018  2nd Round   37th overall           worth   530 points

2018 2nd Round   52nd overall           worth   380 points

2018   5th Round 169th overall           worth     22 points

2019 2nd Round  TBD overall                worth  420 points times x (100 percent- discount)

The Jets overpaid for this move, and the discount rate would have to have been greater than 100 percent to save this trade, which of course is impossible. Put another way, the Jets put 2,952 draft points on the table, the equivalent of first overall pick.

New York gloated and gloated about not having to give up an additional first-round pick to move up, but three second-round picks are worth more than a first-round pick.

Then they wondered why the team didn’t get better. Those four picks could have really helped the Jets’ terrible offensive line, but they just could not figure it out because they were too busy gloating.

That is a classic mistake to trade away the future of the team in order to obtain a young quarterback. If your quarterback is 42-year-old Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, or Ben Roethlisberger, you might (might) consider trading future considerations for one desperate all-out charge at the Super Bowl.

Otherwise, trading future number one picks for a rookie quarterback should be grounds for automatic dismissal of a general manager, with the possible exception being when the team has saved up several extra future number ones for the purpose of trading up.

Similarly, if the salary cap has been spent out, it is no time to be drafting a young quarterback while the team is shedding payroll and waving goodbye to veteran players. You don’t have to be as draconian as Sashi Brown, but you do have to get the salary cap in shape in order to build a team.

Your team is not going to win just by outspending the competition, because the salary cap limits the amount that can be spent.