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Advanced stats expose what's really holding Quinshon Judkins back in Year 2

You've got questions? Well we might just have some answers.
ByDante Walker
Quinshon Judkins
Quinshon Judkins | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For a supposed "young man's game," football coaches, executives, and players sure love their clichés. One of the oldest in the book defines success for bruising running backs as wearing down the defense. According to this legend, two- and three-yard runs in the first quarter become four- and six-yard runs in the second half if there's commitment to the run game.

When you hear this adage, you think of guys like the Baltimore Ravens' Derrick Henry, the Philadelphia Eagles' Saquon Barkley, and, as of late, the Kansas City Chiefs' Kenneth Walker. If Browns running back Quinshon Judkins is to fulfill the potential Cleveland envisioned when they selected him with pick No. 36 in 2025, that's the route. Through three games, Judkins hasn't been able to deliver the goods.

His rookie season was solid, if unspectacular. He rushed 230 times for 827 yards (3.6 yards per carry) and seven touchdowns. Despite receiving more than 80 percent of the Browns' non-quarterback rush attempts this season, he's only produced 124 yards at a paltry 3.0 yards per carry. He hasn't been able to find the end zone either.

Quinshon Judkins isn't facing stacked boxes — he's leaving too many yards on the field

Last season, Judkins faced an eight-man box on a league-leading 45.22 percent of his rushes. This season, that number has plunged to 21.43 percent, according to Next Gen Stats. So if he is not facing loaded boxes, what's the big idea?

Look no further than NGS' efficiency statistic. It's not a stat that always just means "high number good, low number bad," but it tells a story nonetheless. It's defined as: "the total distance a player traveled on rushing plays as a ball carrier according to Next Gen Stats (measured in yards) per rushing yards gained."

Judkins is the NFL's sixth-least efficient back, running 4.9 yards for every one yard he gains. Some runners, like the Detroit Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs, the Miami Dolphins' De'Von Achane, and the Indianapolis Colts' Jonathan Taylor, are not the most efficient, but their play styles as speedy, diminutive backs allow them that luxury. That's not Judkins' game.

The statistic paints a pretty damning picture of the tentativeness Judkins is playing with right now. Instead of hitting the hole suddenly and using his stocky 220-pound frame to break through arm tackles, Judkins is seemingly trying too hard to make something out of nothing — and costing himself yardage in the process.

Football's still a team game, and Judkins cannot be expected to do it all by himself. According to ESPN, the Browns' run-block win rate sits at 71 percent, good for 27th in the league. There must be improvement in that department for Cleveland's rushing attack to truly take off. With that said, you can't go broke making a profit. Judkins needs to take what he can get more often than he has been.

Thursday night's matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers is going to be a tough place to get back on track. The Steelers are Pro Football Focus' top-graded run defense team. Despite that, they are allowing a healthy 4.4-yard-per-carry average this season. If the Browns are to keep that average from coming down, they're going to need Quinshon Judkins to play decisively.

It's ultimately a good thing for fans to pay close attention to during the game. Is Quinshon Judkins dancing in the backfield, allowing the defense more time to converge and corral him? Or is he hitting the hole with force and wearing down Pittsburgh's front?

One thing's for sure: if things don't get turned around soon, head coach Todd Monken might start looking elsewhere for a jumpstart to the Browns' rushing attack, starting with Raheim "Rocket" Sanders.

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