The Cleveland Browns have already won five games this season. That's significantly better than most oddsmakers, pundits, and even fans expected over seven weeks. Actually, 5.5 was their projected win total for the whole season.
That means Todd Monken's team will be playing with house money the rest of the way. With a favorable schedule for the most part, they should at least flirt with a .500 season.
History isn't on their side, though. Precedent shows that teams with similar numbers tend to deflate after a strong start to the season.
As Mike Sando of The Athletic pointed out, the Browns must beat the odds to be one of the few exceptions to that rule.
"The Browns went 5-12 last season while ranking 32nd in EPA per play on offense and first on defense. They are 5-2 this season while ranking 26th and seventh, respectively," Sando wrote. "The Browns are one of 167 teams this century to win five of their first seven games. Their point differential in those five victories (16) is tied for last on that list with the 2004 Jaguars. Those long-ago Jags finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs, like many teams with similar starts."
The Browns have already defied expectations once, so why stop now?
No one can say with a straight face that the Browns are a perfect team right now, and they've made it more difficult on themselves than it should've been with all the slow starts and early-game miscues.
That said, there's precedent. It's been done before, so who's to say the Browns can't keep this going for a bit longer and, at the very least, make the playoffs?
Banking on late-game heroics is unsustainable, but they've shown steady signs of progress in almost every game.
Analytics are great and help provide context and paint a picture of what's going on, but at the end of the day, the only number that matters is the win column. So far, the Browns have found ways to keep stacking bricks there and adding to their win total.
This season was always a big question mark, and this team may have already exceeded all expectations. Even if everything goes south, they've proven that they're not that far off. They just need the right quarterback to be a legitimate threat.
Deshaun Watson has been great at closing out games, even if he's been mostly inconsistent. Still, the team is well-coached, and the influx of young talent gives them an opportunity to compete at a higher level.
History may not be on their side, and there will always be reasons to be skeptical. But why not believe in the Browns for a change?
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