What felt like a slow start to 2026 free agency for the Cleveland Browns picked up steam in a hurry this week. Now, with glaring needs at offensive tackle, guard, and center addressed via a flurry of external additions, GM Andrew Berry and company are in position to crush the first offseason of the Todd Monken era.
According to longtime NFL analytics expert and data scientist Kevin Cole, the Browns are already winning.
Cole released his 2026 NFL Offseason Improvement Index for his website, unexpectedpoints.com, on Wednesday. The Browns rank No. 1 overall after the initial surge of free agency based on “end-of-season roster point-differential projections to those reflecting offseason changes, including draft capital effects,” Cole wrote.
2026 NFL Offseason Improvement Index is up and running @Unexpected_Pts
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) March 11, 2026
Compares end-of-season roster point-differential projections to those reflecting offseason changes, including draft capital effects.
It doesn't project this well *every* offseason, but 2025 results were… pic.twitter.com/DLMpebXGCi
It makes for great AFC North fodder for Browns fans, with the rival Ravens coming apart at the seams, and the Steelers apparently preparing for another season of Aaron Rodgers. The Bengals may have made some strong additions on defense, led by ascending edge rusher Boye Mafe. But the analytics clearly love Cleveland’s offensive line improvements so far, and with nine selections in the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft, Berry and company are far from finished.
Expectations around the Browns could be rising faster than fans expected
Cleveland entered the month of March with no starting-caliber offensive linemen under contract, outside of the oft-injured Dawand Jones. In the span of 10 days, the Browns assembled a veteran group featuring Tytus Howard at right tackle, Teven Jenkins at right guard, Elgton Jenkins at center, Zion Johnson at left guard, and Jones at left tackle.
The Browns hold a pair of first-round picks in the 2026 draft, Nos. 6 and 24 overall, so more tweaks and changes could be coming in April. The team will almost certainly look to bolster the guard and tackle positions with young talent via the draft, with an eye on giving those players a chance to compete in training camp.
Cole’s improvement projections show how much Cleveland’s lack of depth and stability along the offensive line hampered the team in 2025. The Browns shuffled the starting group on a weekly basis, starting in September, and by the end of the season, it was hard to truly evaluate anyone on the offense, including rookie quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.
Given the team’s strength in numbers on defense, featuring the NFL’s best trio in Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, and Carson Schwesinger, even moderate improvement on offense should lead to more wins this year. Monken was hired to make sure that happens, and if the Browns can get their upcoming quarterback competition right, and add some impact talent at wide receiver and tight end in the draft, Cleveland’s mini-rebuild could model that of the 2025 Patriots, Jaguars, and Bears.
For what it’s worth, Cole’s 2025 improvement index featured the Patriots, Bears, and Panthers in the top three last March. His bottom three teams were the Chiefs, Jets, and Eagles.
NFL analytics are hardly an exact science, but the Browns are a data-based franchise, and their offseason is off to a torrid start. The proof is in the numbers.