Few know tanking like the Cleveland Browns. It was this city's proud franchise, in fact, that had folks calling their integrity into question (I'm seeing a pattern here...) when they put together a ghastly 1-31 stretch culminating in back-to-back first overall picks from 2016-2017. While then-head coach Hue Jackson's claims that he was enticed to lose were never fully corroborated, it's clear something was fishy.
One would think that the way the entire saga played out for the Browns would be a cautionary tale, yet folks still find themselves rooting for their teams to lose to find the franchise's savior — the quarterback. Today, the Browns aren't tanking. At least not obviously.
They spent considerable cash upgrading their roster this offseason, a tangible sign that general manager Andrew Berry and Co. realize their seats are getting warm. While conventional wisdom would have fans geeked at the concept that the team is improving, a large portion of the fan base is concerned that the team will be "too good" to get a premium draft pick for a quarterback should Shedeur Sanders falter in 2026.
In-depth analysis proves the tanking fantasy is simply fiction for the Cleveland Browns
The idea that you need the first overall pick or a top-three selection to grab a superstar quarterback has spread like wildfire. So, here at Dawg Pound Daily, we made it our duty to investigate so you don't have to. Spoiler alert: there's much more than meets the eye.
Inspired initially by ESPN's annual position-by-position ranking, we compiled something of a consensus of the top 10 NFL quarterbacks using the rankings ESPN published as well as four other metrics: NFL passer rating, ESPN's proprietary quarterback efficiency metric (QBR), PFF Grade, and EA Sports' Madden rating. This helped us remove all bias from the process and try to get an idea of who the best quarterbacks in the league are by the numbers.
After collecting said numbers, we created a composite ranking. Our top 10 list grew to 16 because some signal-callers appeared in one list while being omitted from another. The final list is as follows:
- Matthew Stafford (2.4)
- Drake Maye (3.6)
- Josh Allen (4)
- Joe Burrow (5.4)
- Lamar Jackson (6.6)
- Dak Prescott (7)
- Jordan Love (7)
- Patrick Mahomes (8.2)
- Brock Purdy (8.2)
- Jared Goff (8.6)
- Justin Herbert (9.2)
- Daniel Jones (10)
- Trevor Lawrence (10.4)
- Caleb Williams (10.8)
- Sam Darnold (10.8)
- Mac Jones (10.8)
Of those 16 quarterbacks, only 31 percent (five QBs) were the No. 1 overall pick in their respective draft. When we back up to include players drafted in the top three, it rises to 44 percent (seven QBs).
The instant realization should be: You don't need to pick in the top three to get a franchise quarterback. By the same token, selecting that high is far from guaranteeing you superstar QB play. Just ask the 49ers and Trey Lance or the Jets and Zach Wilson. The idea that tanking will lead to winning inherently downplays the fact that the most important skill for a franchise is, and has always been, scouting.
Browns fans seem to have learned the lesson the hardest way imaginable. Armed with their pick of the litter in 2017, they opted for Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is far from a bust, and he has been a rock-solid NFL QB. What makes the pick an abject disaster is that (1) the Browns jettisoned him for cartoonish reasons and (2) Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were on the board.
The Browns had the best possible draft pick and still didn't wind up with the top signal-caller. That's maybe a little bit of luck, but a lot more of a failure by the scouting department. The Browns aren't alone in that, either. Every team, including the Ravens, passed on Jackson before Baltimore came back up for him. The point is, it's hard no matter where you pick.
Browns fans shouldn't stress needlessly when the team inevitably wins a game or two that few expected them to. It's the NFL. Any given Sunday, as they say. It's also part of what makes the game great. The concept that rooting for your team to lose in the interim so they win in the future is a convoluted pretzel that is simply not rooted in reality. No matter where the Browns pick, they'll have a chance to hit it out of the park.
There was one other interesting takeaway from this whole study, however.
Shedeur Sanders is facing immense odds to pan out as a franchise quarterback as a non-first-round pick
Even with late-round gems like Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy weighing down the average draft slot of the top 16 NFL quarterbacks, the average for the group as a whole sits right around 32. It's entirely apropos as there are precisely 32 picks in the first round. It's a classic chicken-or-the-egg situation.
Are first-round picks given more leash to develop, thus creating more success stories? Absolutely. On the other hand, are NFL teams willingly letting top-tier quarterback prospects fall to Round 2 and beyond? That's dubious. The reality is, if Shedeur Sanders isn't able to buck the trend and become a franchise quarterback as a fifth-round draft pick, the Browns need to swing big.
That doesn't mean they need to have the top overall choice. It does mean, though, that they should be investing strongly at the position — in the first round. If this study taught us anything, it's not about where you pick; it's about who you pick.
It's only a matter of time before the Browns get it right. When they do, it'll have been a long time coming.
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