The true value of the Browns' Myles Garrett trade is staggering

Draft pick values have historically been hard to quantify when they are exchanged for players. That's why there is so much debate and discussion when a player is traded for a package that includes draft picks.

When evaluating large and complicated trades like the Myles Garrett trade, multiple factors have to be considered. The value of the players being exchanged. The cash cost of those players' salaries over the cost-controlled years they are under contract is also a factor. The picks themselves need to carry a valuation as well (more on that later). It all factors in.

I've developed several systems that, when paired together, can help show the real value exchanged when the Rams sent Jared Verse, a 2027 1st round pick, a 2028 2nd round pick and a 2029 3rd round pick to the Browns for Myles Garrett. Those systems agree with the anecdotal evaluation that the Browns did well to sell high on an over 30 defensive star who no longer aligns with their winning window. But this can put real numbers on that value.

Valuing Myles Garrett

Garrett is far and away the best pass rusher in the NFL right now. What's that worth? Will Anderson Jr. is currently the highest paid edge rusher in the NFL at $50 million per year on his recent extension. Using that as a baseline, let's say a team would pay Garrett $52.5 million for one year of his play.

That is a real piece to give up. No one in Cleveland should pretend otherwise. But the question for the Browns was never whether Garrett is great today. It's how much of that greatness they would actually be paying for over the life of the deal.

Garrett won't maintain that value for the entirety of his contract. At 31 years old, decline should be expected. For the purposes of this exercise, I have assumed a 12 percent decrease in value/performance yearly from 2026 to 2028 and then accelerated that fall-off to 30 percent from 2028 to 2030. Here is what his on-field value, cash salaries and contractual surplus value look like for the life of his contract.

Look at the back half of that table. By 2029 Garrett is a negative asset, costing $40 million for less than $29 million of production. By 2030 his total value rounds to zero. Cleveland is not the team writing those checks. The Browns sold the best two years of what's left and handed the cliff to someone else. That is the whole game when you trade a great player on the wrong side of 30. You move the asset before the market figures out the decline is coming.

Jared Verse's value

The centerpiece of the value coming back to Cleveland is Jared Verse. The Browns now have Verse for two years at near league minimum salaries, plus a fifth-year option. Realistically, they also should consider him under team control for four seasons because the franchise tag should be considered in play. I am assuming Verse is close to his peak of play and have assumed an improvement of just 2.5 percent each year over those four years.

Cash owed for Verse for 2028 and 2029 are his estimated fifth-year option and a potential franchise tag.

This already has Verse as the more valuable asset by the end of the two players' respective team control windows. He is younger, he is cheaper, and he is ascending while Garrett is declining. And the Rams still kicked in three draft picks on top of him. That is the point where a fair trade becomes a windfall.

The draft pick valuation

The premium the Rams paid was in the draft capital. Here is the approximate value of each pick when factoring in a time-value discount of 10 percent per year and considering none of the picks can contribute in 2026. Because these are future picks, an estimation of the actual pick is needed for the valuation. I am using pick 30 for the first-round estimate, 62 for the second and 95 for the third.

If you want to learn more about the methodology for how these draft pick values are calculated, you can find it here.

The total value going to the Browns is a staggering $299.2 million. Against the $196.8 million they gave up in Garrett, that puts the surplus to Cleveland's side at just over $100 million.

Now put that surplus in the only language that really lands with fans. Run that $102 million back through my pick valuation chart and it sits right between the third and fourth overall picks. In other words, the net haul Cleveland walked away with, after accounting for everything they surrendered, is the equivalent of a top-three overall selection. And that is the surplus on top of the trade, not the trade itself. They got Verse, they got three real picks, and the leftover value still prices out like the No. 3 pick in the draft.

Why the Browns should be ecstatic

There's a decent chance that by 2028 Verse is providing more value to the Browns than Garrett is bringing to the Rams. And that doesn't even account for the three draft picks. But by then two of the three picks will have joined Verse in pushing the Browns from cellar-dweller to legitimate playoff contender if all goes well for the Browns rebuild.

While the Rams are rightfully trying to maximize their 2026 and 2027 on-field value, the Browns are taking the appropriate long-term view of the transaction. Maximize total value with an eye to 2028-2030. All four of the assets they brought back work towards that goal. The kicker is not just where the value is weighted, but that when combined with the additional value they were able to net in the exchange, this should be seen as an absolute win for Cleveland.

A contender will gladly overpay for a closing window. A rebuild should gladly cash that check. Cleveland did. And then some.

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