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What pass rush win rate reveals about Browns’ promising 3-1 start

ByRyan O'Leary
Jared Verse
Jared Verse | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One thing we know about the modern-day NFL is that pressure is king.

Through four weeks, the San Francisco 49ers are 4-0 and lead the league in yards per play (6.8). Brock Purdy is the only quarterback to start more than two games and not be sacked a single time this season.

It’s the same deal on defense. If you can’t consistently affect the passer in the pocket, you’re going to have a hard time getting off the field. The teams currently at the bottom of the NFL in pass rush win rate, per data analyst Ryan Paganetti, are the Titans, Texans, Cowboys, Eagles, and Colts. Those five teams are a combined 6-14. Two of them are 0-4.

The Cleveland Browns have been the exception to that rule. On June 1, they made the franchise-altering decision to trade future Hall of Famer Myles Garrett for a monster package of picks and third-year pass rusher Jared Verse. Their group on the edge thus took a natural hit, one that was compounded by Alex Wright’s season-ending Achilles injury during training camp.

Per Paganetti, the Browns rank in a tie with the Green Bay Packers for 19th in pass rush win rate through four games. They’re still getting home, though. Thanks to a hot start from Mason Graham (who’s now down with an MCL sprain) and a boost from new play caller Mike Rutenberg, the Browns rank tied for fifth in the NFL with 12 sacks in four games.

Browns' pass rush has plenty of room to improve despite encouraging sack total

Cleveland’s middling pressure numbers deserve attention. Another big move, such as a trade with the Los Angeles Chargers for Khalil Mack, could become more feasible if the team continues to improve upon its current 3-1 start. 

The Browns have already made a number of moves in an attempt to bolster the edge group, such as adding veterans Derek Barnett and Sam Williams. Only Williams and starter Isaiah McGuire have recorded sacks so far this season. Both Verse and Barnett are yet to record one.

That should change in short order. Verse had his best game of the season in the Week 3 home opener, notching six pressures and five hurries on Bryce Young as Cleveland shut down the NFL’s leader in passing yards. Barnett has been quietly efficient in a rotational role behind Verse and McGuire, leading the team in pressures (13) and hurries (9) entering Week 5. Barnett also shares the team lead with four QB hits.

Cleveland is getting adequate pressure with Rutenberg spinning the dial and bringing linebackers and safeties as extra rushers. Even without a trade deadline addition, the Browns have enough to climb Paganetti’s list once Verse gets hot.

Cleveland’s revamped offensive line hasn’t yet faced an elite pass rush

You would expect a Steelers defensive front that features T.J. Watt, Nate Herbig, and Alex Highsmith to rank among the league leaders in pass rush win rate, but that’s not the case through four weeks. Pittsburgh ranks 25th at 46% — several spots behind the Browns.

The Jaguars, Cleveland’s Week 1 opponent and lone loss of the season, ranks 23rd. The Buccaneers, who the Browns beat on the road in Week 2, rank 16th. Cleveland’s highest-ranked opponent on Paganetti’s list was the Panthers at 13th. 

The top five NFL teams in pass rush win rate are the Seahawks, Vikings, Falcons, Lions, and Rams — so without both Garrett and Verse, Los Angeles is still pressuring the opposing quarterback at a higher rate than average.

For the record, both the Jaguars and Steelers have recorded 10 sacks as a team, which is around the top 10 to 15 teams in the league.

Cleveland’s offensive line has performed about as well as any could have hoped with five new starters and two rookies in the lineup. The schedule might be helping the guys get their feet wet through four games. The Jets rank 18th in pass rush win rate, so Spencer Fano and company should be able to compete and keep quarterback Deshaun Watson clean once again.

Based on the current rankings, the Browns won’t face a top-10 pass rushing team until Week 9 at New Orleans.

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