Oddsmakers not all that impressed by the Cleveland Browns vs Eagles

The Cleveland Browns are small favorites versus the losing Eagles

By installing the 6-3 Cleveland Browns as only -3 1/2 point favorites over the 3-5-1 Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, Vegas oddsmakers are saying that the two teams are about evenly talented. Home field advantage is generally worth about three points, and perhaps a little less in the Coivd situation. So the Browns are basically getting the home field advantage and maybe half a point to one point worth of talent. But the teams are apparently perceived as closely matched.

The over/under is 45.5 points, meaning that Vegas is expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. After watching the Browns’ modus operandi in adverse weather conditions, Vegas evidently figures the Browns are going to keep the ball on the ground if they can, with the result being longer drives and more modest point totals.

Why are the Browns not much more highly favored? Cleveland has a winning record, whereas the Eagles have a losing record. The Browns are playing in the 23-12-1 AFC North, which has whipped up on the NFC East this season. The NFC East is 10-26-1. Why would a losing team from a very weak division be considered the approximate equal to a winning team from a very strong division this season? To paraphrase Rodney Dangerfield, we don’t get no respect.

Maybe the Eagles are better than their record shows. Truth to tell, this fan thought that the Eagles were going to be an NFL powerhouse based on the simple reasoning that they have forward financed their player contracts to the max this season, allowing them to sign more talent. For example, quarterback Carson Wentz‘ salary cap charge is “only” $18.7 million this season but balloons to a guaranteed $34.7 million next season.

They cannot recover cap money by cutting him. The Eagles have several of these “play now, pay later” contracts — they were throwing everything but the kitchen sink at a Super Bowl run in 2020, while refinancing almost every multiyear contract that they could. They know they are screwed in 2021 and beyond. But for one year — this year — they were poised to make a run.

Despite their lousy record, the Eagles find themselves in first place in the weakest division in the NFL. Philly tied the Bengals (recall that the Bengals also played the Browns tough this season with Joe Burrow behind center), and they also came within two points of knocking off the Baltimore Ravens, losing 30-28. That loss to the Ravens is probably the single most impressive game on their 2020 resume.

It’s much more impressive than the Browns’ showing against the same team. The Ravens clobbered the Browns in the season opener, 38-6. Sorry to have even brought that up, gang.

Carson Wentz at one time was regarded as an NFL MVP candidate, but this season appears to be an underachieving, overpaid anchor on the team. He’s managed to throw 12 INTs already this season after throwing only seven in each of the past three seasons. However, 35 sacks in nine games goes a long way to explaining the difference. That is a pace of 62 over a 16 game season, and he is supposed to face Myles Garrett and company this Sunday. Doesn’t that sound like just a tiny bit of a problem?

Eagles fans being who they are, tend to interpret the quarterback’s problem as a sudden drop in IQ rather than a loss of pass protection, but it says here that Wentz is still a very good quarterback if the Eagles can fix some of the other issues around him. Wentz, of course, was the player that then-general manager Sashi Brown decided not to draft in 2016, preferring to trade the pick to Philadelphia in exchange for several draft picks, which he re-invested for even more picks. Most flopped, but Denzel Ward is a star player.

The Eagles are 25th in rushing defense this season and they have to stop Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. 

As always, DPD fans are cautioned that this fan is not a bettor and Vegas is way smarter than he is. Believe Vegas over this fan’s impressions. Nevertheless,  how are the Eagles going to stop the Browns rushing attack, and how are they going to pass with Wentz running for his life?

These factors seem to favor the Browns on any field, though the Las Vegas hotels that host the oddsmakers look ritzy enough that they must know what they are doing.