The Cleveland Browns entered the 2026 offseason with two main goals in mind. First, build a new offensive line from scratch. Second, overhaul the wide receiver room.
Check, and check. Andrew Berry, for all of his past mistakes, pulled off a masterclass by recreating both position groups. First-round rookie KC Concepcion figures to be the centerpiece of the new receiver group, assuming he can overtake Jerry Jeudy.
Without much competition for targets, the rookie could have a big year for the Browns. But ESPN analyst Mike Clay thinks it's time to pump the brakes on the wideout's first-year expectations. In his stat projections for 2026 rookies, he had Concepcion totaling just 773 yards and three touchdowns.
KC Concepcion 2026 projections come in lower than Browns fans would hope
Opportunity doesn't always translate to production. Concepcion could rival Harold Fannin for the team's highest target share, but he might still fail to reach 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie.
Clay sees modest production for the first-round rookie. He said, "The outlook for receivers selected from pick No. 20 through the third round is solid but unspectacular. Since 2012, there are 155 WRs in that range who played at least one snap as a rookie. Of that group, 23 (14.8%) reached 800 receiving yards, and 23 hit seven receiving touchdowns. (Makai) Lemon and the Browns' duo (Concepcion and Denzel Boston) have a path to substantial Year 1 workloads, but expectations should be kept in check."
The ESPN analyst had Concepcion ranked fourth among rookies in receiving yards in his projections.
Historic data certainly doesn't paint a positive picture for Concepcion's rookie year. While top-ten picks often produce at a high level, receivers selected near the end of the first round often take time to carve out a role.
But there's one key reason for Concepcion to buck the trend. Most receivers taken in his range don't have the chance to be their team's No. 1 option as a rookie. The former Texas A&M star does. While Fannin, Jeudy, and Denzel Boston will command their fair share of work, Concepcion could see around 100 targets as a rookie.
If he can limit drops and take advantage of the opportunities that he's given, the Browns rookie could vastly outperform Clay's projections. He certainly has all of the tools to do so. Fans in Cleveland will hope to see more encouraging numbers from their new wideout in year one.
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