As soon as the Cleveland Browns’ official 2026 schedule was released, Weeks 1 and 2 stuck out like a sore thumb. Sore as in throbbing from the sweltering Florida humidity in September.
Head coach Todd Monken and the Browns will make their season debut against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon, and the latest weather forecast from NFLWeather.com points to some potential sloppy conditions.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected in Jacksonville throughout the game, which will be played outdoors at EverBank Stadium. There’s a 46 percent chance of rain at kickoff with a “feels like” temperature creeping up near 100 degrees.
It will be a typical September afternoon in Northeast Florida — and the conditions might actually work in the young Browns’ favor.
Sloppy conditions could turn Quinshon Judkins and the Browns' ground game into a Week 1 advantage
The Browns’ chances of winning this ballgame purely on paper? Not great.
Monken has spent the majority of his time as a top NFL coordinator in the press box. How he manages being on the sideline as the offensive play-caller on top of everything else on his plate as a first-time head coach will be worth monitoring.
The Browns have an extremely young starting lineup, including two rookie offensive linemen, that will be mostly learning on the fly over the first couple months of the season. Their starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson, ranked outside the top 40 in an offseason poll of FanSided experts.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, has a more experienced group entering Year 2 of the Liam Coen era. Their entire operation should be tighter, never mind playing in their stadium and weather.
But on that latter point — the more weather chaos, the better.
The Browns aren’t expected to bring a prolific down-field passing offense to Sunday’s matchup. Their best chance at stealing a win will be to protect the football, lean on their defense, and look to take advantage of Watson’s accuracy and anticipation in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field.
They’ll also be looking to run the football — and run a lot.
Todd Monken has built an offense capable of embracing an ugly afternoon
The Jaguars were already going to see a lot of Quinshon Judkins, Dylan Sampson — and maybe even some KC Concepcion in the run game. Monken wants to run the football, just like he did during his recent tenure as the Baltimore Ravens’ offensive coordinator. No team rushed on a higher percentage of offensive plays than Monken's Ravens from 2023-25.
The Browns also fortified their offensive line for precisely this style of attack. Rookie left tackle Spencer Fano played on one of college football’s most potent rushing attacks at Utah. Fellow rookie Austin Barber, who is poised to start at right guard against the Jaguars, earned an 80.5 run-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus in the preseason to lead the team.
Cleveland is likely welcoming whatever wet and sloppy weather might be coming their way. It sure beats playing in high-90s heat against one of the NFL’s most complete teams. The Jaguars won 13 games last year. They enter 2026 as a contender to not only win the AFC South, but the entire conference.
The more it rains, the more Judkins on early downs, Concepcion on fly sweep action, and Sampson in the screen game come into play. The Browns won’t be looking to take many chances on offense in this one, and if the weather can keep the score in the teens or low 20s — that would suit Monken's team just fine.
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