We knew back on schedule release day that the Cleveland Browns got absolutely hosed with their opening slate of the 2026 season.
For a young team with a first-year NFL head coach and a quarterback who hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since October 2024, drawing back-to-back road trips to Florida to play the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is about as brutal as it gets.
With all due respect to Todd Monken’s always optimistic energy, the Browns will most likely return home to Huntington Bank Field in Week 3 with an 0-2 record.
But if Monken’s group can get the kinks ironed out early, there’s a path to the Browns being way more competitive than most fans in the NFL world think. Starting with the home opener against the Carolina Panthers on Sept. 27, the Browns will likely play four of five games with a point spread inside of 3 points.
Based on way-too-early projections, the Browns won’t be favored in a game until the week after their Week 11 bye, when they host the Las Vegas Raiders. That’s also where, from a strength-of-schedule perspective, their schedule starts to tilt downhill. The Browns will host four of their final seven games — including three in a row out of the bye week and three dome-based opponents in the Raiders, Colts, and Falcons.
Too many people are focusing on an NFL Draft that’s still 230-something days away. If the Browns can stay at least a game or two around .500 through their first 10 games, they could go from the league’s lovable losers to “in the hunt” for the AFC playoffs.
It only sounds far-fetched until you dive into the path.
Cleveland's brutal start could give way to a surprising path toward .500
Week 1 — at Jacksonville Jaguars
No one’s going to pick the Browns to win this one, and it has nothing to do with disrespect. This is about as close to a scheduled loss as you’ll see in the NFL.
The Jaguars won their final eight regular-season games last year and finished 13-4. They’ll be at home in their atmosphere.
Watson will make his first NFL start in almost two years behind an offensive line with five new starters who have never played together. His left tackle and top two wide receivers will be making their NFL debuts.
By the time Cleveland gets its bearings in this one, the Jaguars could be leading by double-digits.
Verdict: LOSS (0-1)
Week 2 — at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another brutal early-season matchup. The Bucs are veteran-laden, and the Browns already know that they’ll be getting Baker Mayfield’s best in this one.
This one favors Tampa Bay for a lot of the same reasons as the Jaguars game. It might be slightly closer than Week 1, but it shouldn’t be very competitive.
Verdict: LOSS (0-2)
Week 3 — vs. Carolina Panthers
Now this NFC South draw feels a lot more gettable on paper. The Browns will host the Panthers, who snuck into the playoffs last season with an 8-9 record.
The home fans will probably boo Deshaun Watson louder than they boo Bryce Young, but the early betting line is telling. Cleveland is currently listed as a 1.5-point underdog to the Panthers, per CBS Sports.
The Panthers were one of the lowest-scoring teams in football last season at around 18 points per game and return largely the same quarterback and skill position group. Cleveland’s defensive players are looking to make a statement this year, and Week 3 vs. Carolina is the spot.
Verdict: WIN (1-2)
Week 4 — vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns knocked off Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers late last season with Shedeur Sanders at quarterback, but it was ugly. Cleveland prevailed 13-6 on a day its offense managed only 11 total first downs and Rodgers seemed to do everything in his power not to be Myles Garrett’s record-breaking 23rd sack.
This matchup could be even uglier, with it being played on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland should match up fine with Pittsburgh this year, but this will be a tricky spot for Monken's group on a short week. The edge in this one leans Rodgers’ way.
Verdict: LOSS (1-3)
Week 5 — at New York Jets
This will be a much better spot for the Browns, as they’ll have 10 days to rest and prepare for a Jets team that’s firmly in their weight class.
Like Cleveland, the Jets will be relying heavily on rookies and other young players throughout their lineup. They have their own early gauntlet, too, essentially playing the entire NFC North prior to this Week 5 home game with Cleveland.
Verdict: WIN (2-3)
Week 6 — vs. Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson and company have tormented the Browns throughout the years, and that shouldn’t change in 2026, at least not this early in the season.
Monken’s familiarity with Baltimore will be mitigated by the Ravens’ new regime led by young head coach Jesse Minter. The Browns will have their hands full with Jackson, but Minter’s defense could be the difference.
Verdict: LOSS (2-4)
Week 7 — at Tennessee Titans
The Browns may not be favored in this game, which will be played in Nashville, but you could make an easy case for them having the more talented roster.
If all goes according to plan, the Browns should be clicking at this point. They dropped a winnable game to the Titans in 2025, but this could be a different story. Tennessee’s a mess, and it will be coming off games against the Ravens, Texans, and Colts prior to Cleveland coming to town.
Verdict: WIN (3-4)
Week 8 — at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland has been closing the talent gap in this rivalry in recent seasons, and that could come to a head here. This is a tough spot for the Steelers, who in Week 7 will play the New Orleans Saints in Paris.
Pittsburgh should still be considered a favorite at home, but if the Browns steal one from the Steelers this year, this feels like the spot for an upset.
Verdict: WIN (4-4)
Week 9 — at New Orleans Saints
Hard to love this one for Cleveland. It will have to travel to Caesars Superdome to play an ascending Saints team that will be fresh off its bye week.
New Orleans came on strong at the end of 2025. If second-year quarterback Tyler Shough can pick up where he left off, the Saints could compete for the NFC South title this year.
Verdict: LOSS (4-5)
Week 10 — vs. Houston Texans
The good news for the Browns is that they get this one at home in mid-November, pulling Houston out of its dome stadium. The Texans have gone a combined 32-19 over their past three seasons, but they’re just 14-11 on the road over that span.
Houston just has too many horses on both sides of the ball — especially on defense — for the Browns’ young offense to handle. The AFC North brand of football is right in Houston's wheelhouse, as last year's 30-6 pummeling of the Steelers showed.
Verdict: LOSS (4-6)
The Browns could be closer to .500 at the bye than anyone expects
In true Monken fashion, this prediction may be a tad optimistic, considering the current state of the Browns’ quarterback room. On schedule day we had the Browns at 5-5 entering the bye. The decision to trade Myles Garrett should cost the team at least one game.
But four wins at this point would set the team up for some competitive football in December. Draft slot projections are fun and all, but it would be the best thing for the Browns and their new regime to start establishing a winning culture.
They have a long way to go, but there’s a clear path to a respectable football season if the Browns can take advantage of some gettable spots early in their schedule.
Add us as a preferred source on Google