The Cleveland Browns were well-connected to nearby Toledo Rockets product Emmanuel McNeil-Warren ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. The versatile defensive back was widely viewed as a potential target at one of Cleveland’s selections at No. 24 or No. 39 overall.
That’s why several draft experts tossed flowers at GM Andrew Berry’s feet after the Browns traded up to land McNeil-Warren with pick No. 58 overall.
The conversation since the draft has shifted to McNeil-Warren’s potential fit in new defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg’s defense. Slot cornerback projects to be one of the fiercest positional battles at the start of training camp next week, and with no clear frontrunner, there’s been a growing expectation that McNeil-Warren could help fill that role as a third safety alongside Grant Delpit and Ronnie Hickman.
There’s a flip side, as respected projections expert Mike Clay laid out this week for ESPN, that could leave fans unpleasantly surprised.
There’s a world in which experienced slot corners like Myles Harden or Myles Bryant lock down a full-time role on defense. In that case, barring an injury or major trade, McNeil-Warren could have a hard time seeing the field in Year 1.
Clay laid out his NFL-wide projections for the 2026 season, and his expectations for McNeil-Warren jumped off the page. He predicts the rookie to play 156 defensive snaps in 2026, placing him more in line with depth cornerback D’Angelo Ross than potential starters like Delpit and Hickman.
ESPN’s 2026 projections for Browns’ rookie Emmanuel McNeil-Warren were surprisingly low
These numbers aren’t just conjured up out of thin air. They’re based on a number of factors including coaching tendencies, historical efficiency, strength of schedule data, and betting expectations.
The most surprising piece of Clay’s projection on McNeil-Warren is that he clearly expects the rookie’s impact to come mostly on special teams, similar to veteran safety Daniel Thomas.
While jarring given the excitement surrounding the pick, it might not be an outlandish take.
As fun as it is to dream about McNeil-Warren becoming Cleveland’s version of Nick Emmanwori this season, it’s way too soon to have that conversation. Both were second-round draft picks, but Emmanwori flashed freakish athletic traits at the 2025 scouting combine and backed them up on the field with uncommon anticipation and pursuit abilities during the Seahawks’ Super Bowl run.
Before the 2025 season, Clay projected Emmanwori to play 631 defensive snaps as the Seahawks' third safety behind Julian Love and Coby Bryant. His actual regular-season total was 765, per Pro Football Focus, though Emmanwori did miss a handful of games early on with a high ankle sprain.
Emmanwori also starred in the SEC for the South Carolina Gamecocks. McNeil-Warren will have to overcome the mid-major stigma, while proving he can match his production with the Rockets against bigger NFL running backs and tight ends. As Dane Brugler of The Athletic noted in his 2026 pre-draft guide, McNeil-Warren’s wiry frame at 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds could put his tackle-finishing abilities under the microscope, starting when the pads come on in training camp.
Projections are rooted in data, not reality. McNeil-Warren should see a lot more defensive reps than 156 this season, barring injury.
But will he be an instant game-changer in the middle of Rutenberg’s defense? As Clay’s numbers warn, it might be too soon to expect that kind of impact in Year 1.
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